相关论文: Batch Universal Prediction

This study evaluates large language models as estimable classifiers and clarifies how modeling choices shape downstream measurement error. Revisiting the Economic Policy Uncertainty index, we show that contemporary classifiers substantially…

We show that large language models (LLMs) are remarkably good at working with interpretable models that decompose complex outcomes into univariate graph-represented components. By adopting a hierarchical approach to reasoning, LLMs can…

Large language models (LLMs) such as ChatGPT have demonstrated superior performance on a variety of natural language processing (NLP) tasks including sentiment analysis, mathematical reasoning and summarization. Furthermore, since these…

Large Language Models (LLMs) have made significant advances in natural language processing, but their underlying mechanisms are often misunderstood. Despite exhibiting coherent answers and apparent reasoning behaviors, LLMs rely on…

Large Language Models (LLMs) are widely used for temporal prediction, but their reliance on pretraining data raises contamination concerns, as accurate predictions on pre-cutoff test data may reflect memorization rather than reasoning,…

Current Large Language Models (LLMs) are unparalleled in their ability to generate grammatically correct, fluent text. LLMs are appearing rapidly, and debates on LLM capacities have taken off, but reflection is lagging behind. Thus, in this…

Human decision-making belongs to the foundation of our society and civilization, but we are on the verge of a future where much of it will be delegated to artificial intelligence. The arrival of Large Language Models (LLMs) has transformed…

Incomplete relevance judgments limit the re-usability of test collections. When new systems are compared against previous systems used to build the pool of judged documents, they often do so at a disadvantage due to the ``holes'' in test…

In order for AI systems to communicate effectively with people, they must understand how we make decisions. However, people's decisions are not always rational, so the implicit internal models of human decision-making in Large Language…

We conducted three experiments to investigate how large language models (LLMs) evaluate posterior probabilities. Our results reveal the coexistence of two modes in posterior judgment among state-of-the-art models: a normative mode, which…

Large language models (LLMs) show early signs of artificial general intelligence but struggle with hallucinations. One promising solution to mitigate these hallucinations is to store external knowledge as embeddings, aiding LLMs in…

In this paper, we propose a ``Generalization Stress Test" to assess Large Language Models' (LLMs) generalization ability under slight and controlled perturbations, including option length, problem types, and irrelevant noun replacements. We…

The rapid development of large language models (LLMs) has not only provided numerous opportunities but also presented significant challenges. This becomes particularly evident when LLMs inadvertently generate harmful or toxic content,…

Inspired by the exceptional general intelligence of Large Language Models (LLMs), researchers have begun to explore their application in pioneering the next generation of recommender systems - systems that are conversational, explainable,…

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across diverse tasks, but their ability to forecast future events remains understudied. A year ago, large language models struggle to come close to the accuracy of a…

Large Language Models (LLMs) represent a landmark achievement in Artificial Intelligence (AI), demonstrating unprecedented proficiency in procedural tasks such as text generation, code completion, and conversational coherence. These…

Large language models (LLMs) offer the potential to automate a large number of tasks that previously have not been possible to automate, including some in science. There is considerable interest in whether LLMs can automate the process of…

We examine how large language models (LLMs) interpret historical stock returns and compare their forecasts with estimates from a crowd-sourced platform for ranking stocks. While stock returns exhibit short-term reversals, LLM forecasts…

Recent work has investigated the capabilities of large language models (LLMs) as zero-shot models for generating individual-level characteristics (e.g., to serve as risk models or augment survey datasets). However, when should a user have…

Modern Artificial Intelligence applications show great potential for language-related tasks that rely on next-word prediction. The current generation of Large Language Models (LLMs) have been linked to claims about human-like linguistic…