相关论文: Parameter uncertainties for imperfect surrogate mo…

Modern imaging techniques heavily rely on Bayesian statistical models to address difficult image reconstruction and restoration tasks. This paper addresses the objective evaluation of such models in settings where ground truth is…

Being able to rigorously quantify the uncertainties in reaction models is crucial to moving this field forward. Even though Bayesian methods are becoming increasingly popular in nuclear theory, they are yet to be implemented and applied in…

For multiple reasons -- such as avoiding overtraining from one data set or because of having received numerical estimates for some parameters in a model from an alternative source -- it is sometimes useful to divide a model's parameters…

Surrogate models (including deep neural networks and other machine learning algorithms in supervised learning) are capable of approximating arbitrarily complex, high-dimensional input-output problems in science and engineering, but require…

The analysis of parametric and non-parametric uncertainties of very large dynamical systems requires the construction of a stochastic model of said system. Linear approaches relying on random matrix theory and principal componant analysis…

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects across individuals has attracted growing attention as a statistical tool for performing critical decision-making. We propose a Bayesian inference framework that quantifies the uncertainty in…

High-throughput data analyses are becoming common in biology, communications, economics and sociology. The vast amounts of data are usually represented in the form of matrices and can be considered as knowledge networks. Spectra-based…

We study consistency properties of machine learning methods based on minimizing convex surrogates. We extend the recent framework of Osokin et al. (2017) for the quantitative analysis of consistency properties to the case of inconsistent…

Learning unbiased models on imbalanced datasets is a significant challenge. Rare classes tend to get a concentrated representation in the classification space which hampers the generalization of learned boundaries to new test examples. In…

Generalization bounds for deep learning models are typically vacuous, not computable or restricted to specific model classes. In this paper, we tackle these issues by providing new disagreement-based certificates for the gap between the…

We discuss the role of misspecification and censoring on Bayesian model selection in the contexts of right-censored survival and concave log-likelihood regression. Misspecification includes wrongly assuming the censoring mechanism to be…

We consider the problem of parameter estimation by the observations of deterministic signal in white gaussian noise. It is supposed that the signal has a singularity of cusp-type. The properties of the maximum likelihood and bayesian…

Deep learning techniques play an increasingly important role in industrial and research environments due to their outstanding results. However, the large number of hyper-parameters to be set may lead to errors if they are set manually. The…

Artificial neural networks will always make a prediction, even when completely uncertain and regardless of the consequences. This obliviousness of uncertainty is a major obstacle towards their adoption in practice. Techniques exist,…

Bayesian methods have proven themselves to be successful across a wide range of scientific problems and have many well-documented advantages over competing methods. However, these methods run into difficulties for two major and prevalent…

We consider Bayesian optimization of an expensive-to-evaluate black-box objective function, where we also have access to cheaper approximations of the objective. In general, such approximations arise in applications such as reinforcement…

Approximate Bayesian inference typically revolves around computing the posterior parameter distribution. In practice, however, the main object of interest is often a model's predictions rather than its parameters. In this work, we propose…

Current methods for learning graphical models with latent variables and a fixed structure estimate optimal values for the model parameters. Whereas this approach usually produces overfitting and suboptimal generalization performance,…

Bayesian Neural Networks provide a principled framework for uncertainty quantification by modeling the posterior distribution of network parameters. However, exact posterior inference is computationally intractable, and widely used…

This work proposes a machine-learning framework for constructing statistical models of errors incurred by approximate solutions to parameterized systems of nonlinear equations. These approximate solutions may arise from early termination of…