相关论文: A Bayesian multivariate model with temporal depend…
Regional aggregates of health outcomes over delineated administrative units (e.g., states, counties, zip codes), or areal units, are widely used by epidemiologists to map mortality or incidence rates and capture geographic variation. To…
Bayesian networks are powerful statistical models to study the probabilistic relationships among set random variables with major applications in disease modeling and prediction. Here, we propose a continuous time Bayesian network with…
When surveillance data of infectious disease incidence (e.g. weekly case counts) are disaggregated by demographic indicators, disparities in long-run health outcomes between these groups become apparent. Accurate identification of high-risk…
The integration of longitudinal measurements and survival time in statistical modeling offers a powerful framework for capturing the interplay between these two essential outcomes, particularly when they exhibit associations. However, in…
Background: A deterministic model is developed for the spatial spread of an epidemic disease in a geographical setting. The disease is borne by vectors to susceptible hosts through criss-cross dynamics. The model is focused on an epidemic…
The performance of data-driven prediction models depends on the availability of data samples for model training. A model that learns about dengue fever incidence in a population uses historical data from that corresponding location. Poor…
Developing the ability to comprehensively study infections in small populations enables us to improve epidemic models and better advise individuals about potential risks to their health. We currently have a limited understanding of how…
Dynamical phenomena such as infectious diseases are often investigated by following up subjects longitudinally, thus generating time to event data. The spatial aspect of such data is also of primordial importance, as many infectious…
Recent mosquito-borne outbreaks have revealed vulnerabilities in our abatement programmes, raising concerns about how abatement-districts should choose optimal future control strategies. Spatial dissemination of vector-borne disease is…
Understanding the dynamics of infectious disease spread in a heterogeneous population is an important factor in designing control strategies. Here, we develop a novel tensor-driven multi-compartment version of the classic…
In this study, we used a dataset of approximately 96,000 reported dengue cases from 2015 to 2024 in Recife, the capital of northeastern Brazil, all geocoded by neighborhood. The dataset was enriched with sociodemographic data from the…
Emerging marine infectious diseases pose a substantial threat to marine ecosystems and the conservation of their biodiversity. Compartmental models of epidemic transmission in marine sessile organisms, available only recently, are based on…
Objectives: Our research adopts computational techniques to analyze disease outbreaks weekly over a large geographic area while maintaining local-level analysis by incorporating relevant high-spatial resolution cultural and environmental…
The analysis of population-wide datasets can provide insight on the health status of large populations so that public health officials can make data-driven decisions. The analysis of such datasets often requires highly parameterized models…
Despite the advanced stage of epidemic modeling, there is a major demand for methods to incorporate behavioral responses to the spread of a disease such as social distancing and adoption of prevention methods. Mobility plays an important…
While death rates due to diseases of the heart have experienced a sharp decline over the past 50 years, these diseases continue to be the leading cause of death in the United States, and the rate of decline varies by geographic location,…
The transmission dynamics of an epidemic are rarely homogeneous. Super-spreading events and super-spreading individuals are two types of heterogeneous transmissibility. Inference of super-spreading is commonly carried out on secondary case…
Due to the rapid geographic spread of the Aedes mosquito and the increase in dengue incidence, dengue fever has been an increasing concern for public health authorities in tropical and subtropical countries worldwide. Significant challenges…
Many malaria-endemic areas experience seasonal fluctuations in case incidence as Anopheles mosquito and Plasmodium parasite life cycles respond to changing environmental conditions. While most existing maps of malaria seasonality use fixed…
Mosquito-borne diseases remain a major public-health threat, and the effective control of mosquito populations requires sustained household participation in removing breeding sites. While environmental drivers of mosquito oscillations have…