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Robust decision making involves making decisions in the presence of uncertainty and is often used in critical domains such as healthcare, supply chains, and finance. Causality plays a crucial role in decision-making as it predicts the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-07-23 Saideep Nannapaneni , Joseph Sakaya , Kyle Caron , Pedro HM Albuquerque , Zaid Tashman

Cluster randomized trials (CRTs) often enroll large numbers of participants, but due to logistical and fiscal challenges, only a subset of participants may be selected for measurement of certain outcomes, and those sampled may, purposely or…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-05-16 Joshua R. Nugent , Carina Marquez , Edwin D. Charlebois , Rachel Abbott , Laura B. Balzer

We develop new semiparametric methods for estimating treatment effects. We focus on settings where the outcome distributions may be thick tailed, where treatment effects may be small, where sample sizes are large and where assignment is…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-08-24 Susan Athey , Peter J. Bickel , Aiyou Chen , Guido W. Imbens , Michael Pollmann

This paper proposes a doubly robust two-stage semiparametric difference-in-difference estimator for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects with high-dimensional data. Our new estimator is robust to model miss-specifications and allows…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2020-09-08 Yang Ning , Sida Peng , Jing Tao

When studying treatment effects in multilevel studies, investigators commonly use (semi-)parametric estimators, which make strong parametric assumptions about the outcome, the treatment, and/or the correlation structure between study units…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-05-12 Chan Park , Hyunseung Kang

This paper considers the practically important case of nonparametrically estimating heterogeneous average treatment effects that vary with a limited number of discrete and continuous covariates in a selection-on-observables framework where…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2019-08-26 Michael Zimmert , Michael Lechner

Current Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation (TMLE) methods used to analyze time-to-event data estimate the survival probability for each time point separately, which result in estimates that are not necessarily monotone. In this paper,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-06-14 Weixin Cai , Mark J. van der Laan

Heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE) based on patients' genetic or clinical factors are of significant interest to precision medicine. Simultaneously modeling HTE and corresponding main effects for randomized clinical trials with…

机器学习 · 统计学 2023-02-06 Heng Chen , Michael L. LeBlanc , James Y. Dai

We propose a novel targeted maximum likelihood estimator (TMLE) for quantiles in semiparametric missing data models. Our proposed estimator is locally efficient, $\sqrt{n}$-consistent, asymptotically normal, and doubly robust, under…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2016-08-23 Iván Díaz

Targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE) is a general method for estimating parameters in semiparametric and nonparametric models. Each iteration of TMLE involves fitting a parametric submodel that targets the parameter of interest. We…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2014-06-03 Iván Díaz , Michael Rosenblum

Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation (TMLE) is increasingly used for doubly robust causal inference, but how missing data should be handled when using TMLE with data-adaptive approaches is unclear. Based on the Victorian Adolescent Health…

Long-term causal inference has drawn increasing attention in many scientific domains. Existing methods mainly focus on estimating average long-term causal effects by combining long-term observational data and short-term experimental data.…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-03-04 Weilin Chen , Ruichu Cai , Junjie Wan , Zeqin Yang , José Miguel Hernández-Lobato

We propose a semiparametric two-stage least square estimator for the heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE). HTE is the solution to certain integral equation which belongs to the class of Fredholm integral equations of the first kind, which…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2019-02-27 Keisuke Takahata , Takahiro Hoshino

In biomedical science, analyzing treatment effect heterogeneity plays an essential role in assisting personalized medicine. The main goals of analyzing treatment effect heterogeneity include estimating treatment effects in clinically…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-12-06 Waverly Wei , Maya Petersen , Mark J van der Laan , Zeyu Zheng , Chong Wu , Jingshen Wang

This paper proposes a new class of M-estimators that double weight for the twin problems of nonrandom treatment assignment and missing outcomes, both of which are common issues in the treatment effects literature. The proposed class is…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2020-11-24 Akanksha Negi

This article proposes different tests for treatment effect heterogeneity when the outcome of interest, typically a duration variable, may be right-censored. The proposed tests study whether a policy 1) has zero distributional (average)…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-02-19 Pedro H. C. Sant'Anna

Estimating the mean counterfactual outcome under a treatment rule is a central problem in causal inference and policy evaluation. Standard estimators, including inverse probability weighting (IPW), augmented IPW (AIPW), and targeted maximum…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-06 Yichen Xu , Mark J. van der Laan

Two-phase sampling is commonly adopted for reducing cost and improving estimation efficiency. In many two-phase studies, the outcome and some cheap covariates are observed for a large sample in Phase I, and expensive covariates are obtained…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-10-14 Qingning Zhou , Kin Yau Wong

In recent years, precision treatment strategy have gained significant attention in medical research, particularly for patient care. We propose a novel framework for estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATE) in time-to-event…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-07-29 Runjia Li , Victor B. Talisa , Chung-Chou H. Chang

A novel estimation approach for a general class of semi-parametric multivariate time series models is introduced where the conditional mean is modeled through parametric functions. The focus of the estimation is the conditional mean…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-07-21 Mirko Armillotta