相关论文: A Fractal-based Complex Belief Entropy for Uncerta…

The total uncertainty measurement of basic probability assignment (BPA) in Dempster-Shafer evidence theory (DSET) has always been an open issue. Although some scholars put forward various measurements and entropies of BPA, due to the…

Concept Bottleneck Models (CBMs) predict through human-interpretable concepts, but they typically output point concept probabilities that conflate epistemic uncertainty (reducible model underspecification) with aleatoric uncertainty…

Current interpretability methods focus on explaining a particular model's decision through present input features. Such methods do not inform the user of the sufficient conditions that alter these decisions when they are not desirable.…

Deep ensembles (DE) have emerged as a powerful approach for quantifying predictive uncertainty and distinguishing its aleatoric and epistemic components, thereby enhancing model robustness and reliability. However, their high computational…

A recent paper presents the "false confidence theorem" (FCT) which has potentially broad implications for statistical inference using Bayesian posterior uncertainty. This theorem says that with arbitrarily large (sampling/frequentist)…

Transitioning from Phase 2 to Phase 3 in drug development, at a rate of $\approx$40%, is the most stringent among phase transitions (Hay et al. (2014)). Yet, success rate at Phase 3 leading to approval is only $\approx$50% (Arrowsmith…

Evidence theory is that the extension of probability can better deal with unknowns and inaccurate information. Uncertainty measurement plays a vital role in both evidence theory and probability theory. Approximate Entropy (ApEn) is proposed…

Smets proposes the Pignistic Probability Transformation (PPT) as the decision layer in the Transferable Belief Model (TBM), which argues when there is no more information, we have to make a decision using a Probability Mass Function (PMF).…

In this paper, we propose Evidential Conformal Prediction (ECP) method for image classifiers to generate the conformal prediction sets. Our method is designed based on a non-conformity score function that has its roots in Evidential Deep…

In Sequential Recommendation Systems (SRecsys), traditional training approaches that rely on Cross-Entropy (CE) loss often prioritize accuracy but fail to align well with user satisfaction metrics. CE loss focuses on maximizing the…

Current concerns regarding the dependability of psychological findings call for methodological developments to provide additional evidence in support of scientific conclusions. This paper highlights the value and importance of two distinct…

Interpretable models are designed to make decisions in a human-interpretable manner. Representatively, Concept Bottleneck Models (CBM) follow a two-step process of concept prediction and class prediction based on the predicted concepts. CBM…

As Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in real-world settings, correctness alone is insufficient. Reliable deployment requires maintaining truthful beliefs under contextual perturbations. Existing evaluations largely rely…

In this work we investigate generalized theories of gravity in the so-called configurational entropy (CE) context. We show, by means of this information-theoretical measure, that a stricter bound on the parameter of $f(R,T)$ brane models…

Among the promising approaches to enforce safety in control systems, learning Control Barrier Functions (CBFs) from expert demonstrations has emerged as an effective strategy. However, a critical challenge remains: verifying that the…

It is explored that available credible evidence fusion schemes suffer from the potential inconsistency because credibility calculation and Dempster's combination rule-based fusion are sequentially performed in an open-loop style. This paper…

A reliable modeling of uncertain evidence in Bayesian networks based on a set-valued quantification is proposed. Both soft and virtual evidences are considered. We show that evidence propagation in this setup can be reduced to standard…

We study the problem of quantifying epistemic predictive uncertainty (EPU) -- that is, uncertainty faced at prediction time due to the existence of multiple plausible predictive models -- within the framework of conformal prediction (CP).…

The application of effective field theory (EFT) methods to nuclear systems provides the opportunity to rigorously estimate the uncertainties originating in the nuclear Hamiltonian. Yet this is just one source of uncertainty in the…

In order to oversee advanced AI systems, it is important to understand their underlying decision-making process. When prompted, large language models (LLMs) can provide natural language explanations or reasoning traces that sound plausible…