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Following recent shootings in the USA, a debate has erupted, one side favoring stricter gun control, the other promoting protection through more weapons. We provide a scientific foundation to inform this debate, based on mathematical,…

Gun violence is a critical public health and safety concern in the United States. There is considerable variability in policy proposals meant to curb gun violence, ranging from increasing gun availability to deter potential assailants…

We propose a simple mathematical model to describe the evolution of violent crimes. For such purpose, we built a model based on ordinary differential equations that take into account the number of violent crimes and the number of legal and…

This paper applies new and recently introduced approaches to study trends in gun violence in the United States. We use techniques in both the time and frequency domain to provide a more complete understanding of gun violence dynamics. We…

In the United States, firearm-related deaths and injuries are a major public health issue. Because of limited federal action, state policies are particularly important, and their evaluation informs the actions of other policymakers. The…

The United States leads the world in the number of mass shootings that occur each year, even as policy making on firearms remains polarized along party lines. In the face of increasing violence and public demand for policy action, we ask…

The United States have some of the highest rates of gun violence among developed countries. Yet, there is a disagreement about the extent to which firearms should be regulated. In this study, we employ social media signals to examine the…

There have been many claims in the media and a bit of respectable research about the causes of variation in firearm sales. The challenges for causal inference can be quite daunting. This paper reports an analysis of daily handgun sales in…

Motivated by the increasing number of COVID-19 cases that have been observed in many countries after the vaccination and relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions, we propose a mathematical model on time-varying networks for the spread…

Among industrialized countries, U.S. holds two somehow inglorious records: the highest rate of fatal police shootings and the highest rate of deaths related to firearms. The latter has been associated with strong diffusion of firearms…

For many infectious disease outbreaks, the at-risk population changes their behavior in response to the outbreak severity, causing the transmission dynamics to change in real-time. Behavioral change is often ignored in epidemic modeling…

Epidemiological models are an important tool in coping with epidemics, as they offer a forecast, even if often simplistic, of the behavior of the disease in the population. This allows responsible health agencies to organize themselves and…

The number of active shooter incidents in the US has been increasing alarmingly. It is imperative for the government as well as the public to understand these events. Though both analytic and agent-based models have been proposed for…

This paper is a comment to a recent paper which appeared in Science, presenting a mathematical model of the size distribution, in terms of manpower, of the drugs cartels in Mexico. I show that the model is undetermined and that the main…

We have established a novel mathematical model that considers various aspects of the spreading of the virus, including, the transmission based on being in the latent period, environment to human transmission, governmental decisions, and…

Autoregressive models are widely used for the analysis of time-series data, but they remain underutilized when estimating effects of interventions. This is in part due to endogeneity of the lagged outcome with any intervention of interest,…

This paper combines a canonical epidemiology model of disease dynamics with government policy of lockdown and testing, and agents' decision to social distance in order to avoid getting infected. The model is calibrated with data on deaths…

Accurate and interpretable forecasting models predicting spatially and temporally fine-grained changes in the numbers of intrastate conflict casualties are of crucial importance for policymakers and international non-governmental…

Maintaining stability in feedback systems, from aircraft and autonomous robots to biological and physiological systems, relies on monitoring their behavior and continuously adjusting their inputs. Incremental damage can make such control…

Over the last fifty years, the United States have experienced hundreds of mass public shootings that resulted in thousands of victims. Characterized by their frequent occurrence and devastating nature, mass shootings have become a major…