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Despite tremendous progress in developing deep-learning-based weather forecasting systems, their design space, including the impact of different design choices, is yet to be well understood. This paper aims to fill this knowledge gap by…

Finding collective variables to describe some important coarse-grained information on physical systems, in particular metastable states, remains a key issue in molecular dynamics. Recently, machine learning techniques have been intensively…

化学物理 · 物理学 2024-03-15 Tony Lelièvre , Thomas Pigeon , Gabriel Stoltz , Wei Zhang

A central challenge in data-driven model discovery is the presence of hidden, or latent, variables that are not directly measured but are dynamically important. Takens' theorem provides conditions for when it is possible to augment these…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-01-14 Joseph Bakarji , Kathleen Champion , J. Nathan Kutz , Steven L. Brunton

Time series forecasting models are becoming increasingly prevalent due to their critical role in decision-making across various domains. However, most existing approaches represent the coupled temporal patterns, often neglecting the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-09-26 Jintao Zhang , Mingyue Cheng , Xiaoyu Tao , Zhiding Liu , Daoyu Wang

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is a powerful tool for modeling turbulent flow and is commonly used for urban microclimate simulations. However, traditional CFD methods are computationally intensive, requiring substantial hardware…

流体动力学 · 物理学 2025-01-10 Sepehrdad Tahmasebi , Geng Tian , Shaoxiang Qin , Ahmed Marey , Liangzhu Leon Wang , Saeed Rayegan

Large-scale foundation models for scientific machine learning adapt to physical settings unseen during training, such as zero-shot transfer between turbulent scales. This phenomenon, in-context learning, challenges conventional…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-04-14 Anthony Bao , Jeffrey Lai , William Gilpin

Deep Learning models have achieved state-of-the-art performance in medium-range weather prediction but often fail to maintain physically consistent rollouts beyond 14 days. In contrast, a few atmospheric models demonstrate stability over…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-05-06 Florian Gallusser , Simon Hentschel , Anna Krause , Andreas Hotho

Probabilistic models with discrete latent variables naturally capture datasets composed of discrete classes. However, they are difficult to train efficiently, since backpropagation through discrete variables is generally not possible. We…

机器学习 · 统计学 2017-04-25 Jason Tyler Rolfe

Delay embedding---a method for reconstructing dynamical systems by delay coordinates---is widely used to forecast nonlinear time series as a model-free approach. When multivariate time series are observed, several existing frameworks can be…

机器学习 · 统计学 2019-07-04 Shunya Okuno , Kazuyuki Aihara , Yoshito Hirata

This paper concerns statistical inference for the components of a high-dimensional regression parameter despite possible endogeneity of each regressor. Given a first-stage linear model for the endogenous regressors and a second-stage linear…

统计理论 · 数学 2019-11-25 David Gold , Johannes Lederer , Jing Tao

Multivariate time series forecasting plays a crucial role in various real-world applications. Significant efforts have been made to integrate advanced network architectures and training strategies that enhance the capture of temporal…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-10-31 Zhiding Liu , Jiqian Yang , Qingyang Mao , Yuze Zhao , Mingyue Cheng , Zhi Li , Qi Liu , Enhong Chen

The endogeneity issue is fundamentally important as many empirical applications may suffer from the omission of explanatory variables, measurement error, or simultaneous causality. Recently, \cite{hllt17} propose a "Deep Instrumental…

统计理论 · 数学 2020-05-01 Ruiqi Liu , Zuofeng Shang , Guang Cheng

Current data-driven predictive control (DDPC) methods heavily rely on data collected in open-loop operation with elaborate design of inputs. However, due to safety or economic concerns, systems may have to be under feedback control, where…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2024-02-21 Yibo Wang , Yiwen Qiu , Malika Sader , Dexian Huang , Chao Shang

We introduce a new version of deep state-space models (DSSMs) that combines a recurrent neural network with a state-space framework to forecast time series data. The model estimates the observed series as functions of latent variables that…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-05-20 Haoxuan Wu , David S. Matteson , Martin T. Wells

Weather forecasts sit upstream of high-stakes decisions in domains such as grid operations, aviation, agriculture, and emergency response. Yet forecast users often face a difficult trade-off. Many decision-relevant targets are functionals…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-01-08 Paulius Rauba , Viktor Cikojevic , Fran Bartolic , Sam Levang , Ty Dickinson , Chase Dwelle

Accurate weather forecasting holds significant importance to human activities. Currently, there are two paradigms for weather forecasting: Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and Deep Learning-based Prediction (DLP). NWP utilizes atmospheric…

大气与海洋物理 · 物理学 2024-01-10 Wenyuan Li , Zili Liu , Keyan Chen , Hao Chen , Shunlin Liang , Zhengxia Zou , Zhenwei Shi

Numerical weather prediction has traditionally been based on physical models of the atmosphere. Recently, however, the rise of deep learning has created increased interest in purely data-driven medium-range weather forecasting with first…

大气与海洋物理 · 物理学 2021-03-17 Stephan Rasp , Nils Thuerey

Weather forecasting requires not only accuracy but also the ability to perform probabilistic prediction. However, deterministic weather forecasting methods do not support probabilistic predictions, and conversely, probabilistic models tend…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2023-12-06 Donggeun Yoon , Minseok Seo , Doyi Kim , Yeji Choi , Donghyeon Cho

A large obstacle to deploying deep learning models in practice is the process of updating models post-deployment (ideally, frequently). Deep neural networks can cost many thousands of dollars to train. When new data comes in the pipeline,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-06-21 Rich Harang , Hillary Sanders

Data-driven fault diagnostics of safety-critical systems often faces the challenge of a complete lack of labeled data associated with faulty system conditions (i.e., fault types) at training time. Since an unknown number and nature of fault…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-10-01 Manuel Arias Chao , Bryan T. Adey , Olga Fink