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Comparing future antibiotic resistance levels resulting from different antibiotic treatments is challenging because some patients may survive only under one of the antibiotic treatments. We embed this problem within a semi-competing risks…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-06-12 Tamir Zehavi , Uri Obolski , Michal Chowers , Daniel Nevo

Experiments are the gold standard for causal inference. In many applications, experimental units can often be recruited or chosen sequentially, and the adaptive execution of such experiments may offer greatly improved inference of causal…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-06-14 Difan Song , Simon Mak , C. F. Jeff Wu

The theory of causal emergence (CE) with effective information (EI) posits that complex systems can exhibit CE, where macro-dynamics show stronger causal effects than micro-dynamics. A key challenge of this theory is its dependence on…

统计力学 · 物理学 2025-03-12 Jiang Zhang , Ruyi Tao , Keng Hou Leong , Mingzhe Yang , Bing Yuan

Healthcare decision-making often requires selecting among treatment options under budget constraints, particularly when one option is more effective but also more costly. Cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) provides a framework for evaluating…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-07-29 Jonas Esser , Mateus Maia , Judith Bosmans , Johanna van Dongen

Causal effect estimation under networked interference is an important but challenging problem. Available parametric methods are limited in their model space, while previous semiparametric methods, e.g., leveraging neural networks to fit…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-02-27 Weilin Chen , Ruichu Cai , Zeqin Yang , Jie Qiao , Yuguang Yan , Zijian Li , Zhifeng Hao

Conditional effect estimation has great scientific and policy importance because interventions may impact subjects differently depending on their characteristics. Most research has focused on estimating the conditional average treatment…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-04-25 Alec McClean , Zach Branson , Edward H. Kennedy

Augmenting the control arm in clinical trials with external data can improve statistical power for demonstrating treatment effects. In many time-to-event outcome trials, participants are subject to truncation by death. Direct application of…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-06-24 Zehao Su , Helene C. W. Rytgaard , Henrik Ravn , Frank Eriksson

The Causal Effect (CE) is a numerical measure of causal influence of variables on observed results. Despite being widely used in many areas, only preliminary attempts have been made to use CE as an attribution score in data management, to…

数据库 · 计算机科学 2025-09-23 Felipe Azua , Leopoldo Bertossi

We consider the conditional treatment effect for competing risks data in observational studies. While it is described as a constant difference between the hazard functions given the covariates, we do not assume specific functional forms for…

应用统计 · 统计学 2021-12-28 Denise Rava , Ronghui Xu

Understanding socio-academic and economic factors influencing students' performance is crucial for effective educational interventions. This study employs several machine learning techniques and causal analysis to predict and elucidate the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-06-17 Md. Biplob Hosen , Sabbir Ahmed , Bushra Akter , Mehrin Anannya

Interference occurs when a unit's treatment (or exposure) affects another unit's outcome. In some settings, units may be grouped into clusters such that it is reasonable to assume that interference, if present, only occurs between…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-08-24 Chanhwa Lee , Donglin Zeng , Michael G. Hudgens

When studying treatment effects in multilevel studies, investigators commonly use (semi-)parametric estimators, which make strong parametric assumptions about the outcome, the treatment, and/or the correlation structure between study units…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-05-12 Chan Park , Hyunseung Kang

Counterfactual explanations play an important role in detecting bias and improving the explainability of data-driven classification models. A counterfactual explanation (CE) is a minimal perturbed data point for which the decision of the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-10-27 Donato Maragno , Jannis Kurtz , Tabea E. Röber , Rob Goedhart , Ş. Ilker Birbil , Dick den Hertog

The cross-entropy (CE) method is a popular stochastic method for optimization due to its simplicity and effectiveness. Designed for rare-event simulations where the probability of a target event occurring is relatively small, the CE-method…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-09-22 Robert J. Moss

Estimating average causal effect (ACE) is useful whenever we want to know the effect of an intervention on a given outcome. In the absence of a randomized experiment, many methods such as stratification and inverse propensity weighting have…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2019-07-11 Rathin Desai , Amit Sharma

Two-phase sampling is a simple and cost-effective estimation strategy in survey sampling and is widely used in practice. Because the phase-2 sampling probability typically depends on low-cost variables collected at phase 1, naive estimation…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-11-11 Kazuharu Harada , Masataka Taguri

This paper investigates efficient Difference-in-Differences (DiD) and Event Study (ES) estimation using short panel data sets within the heterogeneous treatment effect framework, free from parametric functional form assumptions and allowing…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-06-24 Xiaohong Chen , Pedro H. C. Sant'Anna , Haitian Xie

Making causal inferences from observational studies can be challenging when confounders are missing not at random. In such cases, identifying causal effects is often not guaranteed. Motivated by a real example, we consider a…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-10-31 Jian Sun , Bo Fu

The Certainty Equivalent heuristic (CE) is a widely-used algorithm for various dynamic resource allocation problems in OR and OM. Despite its popularity, existing theoretical guarantees of CE are limited to settings satisfying restrictive…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2025-02-14 Yilun Chen , Wenjia Wang

We consider the problem of efficient inference of the Average Treatment Effect in a sequential experiment where the policy governing the assignment of subjects to treatment or control can change over time. We first provide a central limit…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-03-05 Thomas Cook , Alan Mishler , Aaditya Ramdas