相关论文: Bayesian Tensor Factorisations for Time Series of …

Gaussian processes are valuable tools for non-parametric modelling, where typically an assumption of stationarity is employed. While removing this assumption can improve prediction, fitting such models is challenging. In this work,…

Quantifying spatial and/or temporal associations in multivariate geolocated data of different types is achievable via spatial random effects in a Bayesian hierarchical model, but severe computational bottlenecks arise when spatial…

Motivated by examples from genetic association studies, this paper considers the model selection problem in a general complex linear model system and in a Bayesian framework. We discuss formulating model selection problems and incorporating…

Multivariate data that combine binary, categorical, count and continuous outcomes are common in the social and health sciences. We propose a semiparametric Bayesian latent variable model for multivariate data of arbitrary type that does not…

We propose a probabilistic modeling framework for learning the dynamic patterns in the collective behaviors of social agents and developing profiles for different behavioral groups, using data collected from multiple information sources.…

We present a novel Bayesian inference tool that uses a neural network to parameterise efficient Markov Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) proposals. The target distribution is first transformed into a diagonal, unit variance Gaussian by a series of…

This paper develops the theory and methods for modeling a stationary count time series via Gaussian transformations. The techniques use a latent Gaussian process and a distributional transformation to construct stationary series with very…

This paper proposes a flexible Bayesian approach to multiple imputation using conditional Gaussian mixtures. We introduce novel shrinkage priors for covariate-dependent mixing proportions in the mixture models to automatically select the…

Undirected graphical models are widely used in statistics, physics and machine vision. However Bayesian parameter estimation for undirected models is extremely challenging, since evaluation of the posterior typically involves the…

This paper presents a Markov chain Monte Carlo method to generate approximate posterior samples in retrospective multiple changepoint problems where the number of changes is not known in advance. The method uses conjugate models whereby the…

Streaming tensor factorization is a powerful tool for processing high-volume and multi-way temporal data in Internet networks, recommender systems and image/video data analysis. Existing streaming tensor factorization algorithms rely on…

Bayesian models that can handle both over and under dispersed counts are rare in the literature, perhaps because full probability distributions for dispersed counts are rather difficult to construct. This note takes a first look at Bayesian…

An important aspect of Bayesian model selection is how to deal with huge model spaces, since exhaustive enumeration of all the models entertained is unfeasible and inferences have to be based on the very small proportion of models visited.…

This paper deals with the factor modeling for high-dimensional time series based on a dimension-reduction viewpoint. Under stationary settings, the inference is simple in the sense that both the number of factors and the factor loadings are…

The paper describes the use of Bayesian regression for building time series models and stacking different predictive models for time series. Using Bayesian regression for time series modeling with nonlinear trend was analyzed. This approach…

We introduce a class of Bayesian matrix dynamic factor models that accommodates time-varying volatility, outliers, and cross-sectional correlation in the idiosyncratic components. For model comparison, we employ an importance-sampling…

Inference for continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) becomes challenging when the process is only observed at discrete time points. The exact likelihood is intractable, and existing methods often struggle even in medium-dimensional…

Natural and social multivariate systems are commonly studied through sets of simultaneous and time-spaced measurements of the observables that drive their dynamics, i.e., through sets of time series. Typically, this is done via hypothesis…

In this paper, the panel count data analysis for recurrent events is considered. Such analysis is useful for studying tumor or infection recurrences in both clinical trial and observational studies. A bivariate Gaussian Cox process model is…

Estimation and prediction in high dimensional multivariate factor stochastic volatility models is an important and active research area because such models allow a parsimonious representation of multivariate stochastic volatility. Bayesian…