相关论文: Prediction of viral spillover risk based on the ma…
Diseases originating from wildlife pose a significant threat to global health, causing human and economic losses each year. The transmission of disease from animals to humans occurs at the interface between humans, livestock, and wildlife…
Viral zoonoses have emerged as the key drivers of recent pandemics. Human infection by zoonotic viruses are either spillover events -- isolated infections that fail to cause a widespread contagion -- or species jumps, where successful…
The World Health Organization describes zoonotic diseases as a major pandemic threat, and modeling the behavior of such diseases is a key component of their control. Many emerging zoonoses, such as SARS, Nipah, and Hendra, mutated from…
Preparing to rapidly respond to emerging infectious diseases is becoming ever more critical. "SpillOver: Viral Risk Ranking" is an open-source tool developed to evaluate novel wildlife-origin viruses for their risk of spillover from animals…
This paper presents a novel probabilistic approach for assessing the risk of West Nile Disease (WND) spillover to the human population. The assessment has been conducted under two different scenarios: (1) assessment of the onset of…
Infectious diseases are a significant threat to human society which was over sighted before the incidence of COVID-19, although according to the report of the World Health Organisation (WHO) about 4.2 million people die annually due to…
Infectious diseases usually originate from a specific location within a city. Due to the heterogenous distribution of population and public facilities, and the structural heterogeneity of human mobility network embedded in space, infectious…
Two factors that are often ignored but could play a crucial role in the progression of an infectious disease are the distributions of inherent susceptibility ($\sigma_{inh}$) and external infectivity ($\iota_{ext}$), in a given population.…
Despite the enormous relevance of zoonotic infections to world- wide public health, and despite much effort in modeling individual zoonoses, a fundamental understanding of the disease dynamics and the nature of outbreaks arising in such…
The viral load is known to be a chief predictor of the risk of transmission of infectious diseases. In this work, we investigate the role of the individuals' viral load in the disease transmission by proposing a new…
The rapid worldwide spread of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) demonstrated the potential threat an infectious disease poses in a closely interconnected and interdependent world. Here we introduce a probabilistic model which…
This work aims to assess the risks of Covid-19 disease spread in diverse daily-life situations (referred to as scenarios) involving crowds of maskless pedestrians, mostly outdoors. More concretely, we develop a method to infer the global…
Changes in human behavior are increasingly recognized as a major determinant of epidemic dynamics. Although collective activity can be modified through imposed measures to control epidemic progression, spontaneous changes can also arise as…
Zoonotic diseases spread through pathogens-infected animal carriers. In the case of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD), evidence supports that the main carriers are fruit bats and non-human primates. Further, EVD spread is a multi-factorial problem…
The COVID-19 pandemic is spreading rapidly around the world, causing countries to impose lockdowns and efforts to develop vaccines on a global scale. However, human-to-animal and animal-to-human transmission cannot be ignored, as severe…
Understanding the spread of any disease is a highly complex and interdisciplinary exercise as biological, social, geographic, economic, and medical factors may shape the way a disease moves through a population and options for its eventual…
During pandemic events, strategies such as social distancing can be fundamental to curb viral spreading. Such actions can reduce the number of simultaneous infections and mitigate the disease spreading, which is relevant to the risk of a…
Background: The global spread of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic has clearly shown the importance of considering the long-range transportation networks in the understanding of emerging diseases outbreaks. The…
Vector-borne diseases arise from the coupled dynamics of human mobility and mosquito ecology, producing outbreaks shaped by both spatial distributions and temporal patterns of movement. Here we develop a coarse-grained hub--leaf reduction…
We analytically address disease outbreaks in large, random networks with heterogeneous infectivity and susceptibility. The transmissibility $T_{uv}$ (the probability that infection of $u$ causes infection of $v$) depends on the infectivity…