相关论文: On Forecast Stability

Stably placing an object in a multi-object scene is a fundamental challenge in robotic manipulation, as placements must be penetration-free, establish precise surface contact, and result in a force equilibrium. To assess stability, existing…

Owing to their inherently interpretable structure, decision trees are commonly used in applications where interpretability is essential. Recent work has focused on improving various aspects of decision trees, including their predictive…

Accurate precipitation forecasting is indispensable for informed decision-making across various industries. However, the computational demands of current models raise environmental concerns. We address the critical need for accurate…

The coarse spatial resolution of gridded climate models, such as general circulation models, limits their direct use in projecting socially relevant variables like extreme precipitation. Most downscaling methods estimate the conditional…

The fixed-event forecasting setup is common in economic policy. It involves a sequence of forecasts of the same (`fixed') predictand, so that the difficulty of the forecasting problem decreases over time. Fixed-event point forecasts are…

We propose a framework employing stochastic differential equations to facilitate the long-term stability analysis of power grids with intermittent wind power generations. This framework takes into account the discrete dynamics which play a…

A novel framework for hierarchical forecast updating is presented, addressing a critical gap in the forecasting literature. By assuming a temporal hierarchy structure, the innovative approach extends hierarchical forecast reconciliation to…

We consider the two-sided stable matching setting in which there may be uncertainty about the agents' preferences due to limited information or communication. We consider three models of uncertainty: (1) lottery model --- in which for each…

Predictive safety filters enable the integration of potentially unsafe learning-based control approaches and humans into safety-critical systems. In addition to simple constraint satisfaction, many control problems involve additional…

To date, the instability of prognostic predictors in a sparse high dimensional model, which hinders their clinical adoption, has received little attention. Stable prediction is often overlooked in favour of performance. Yet, stability…

We propose a multi-scale extension of conformal prediction, an approach that constructs prediction sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees under minimal statistical assumptions. Classic conformal prediction relies on a single notion of…

Conformal prediction provides a principled framework for uncertainty quantification with finite-sample coverage guarantees. While recent work has extended conformal prediction to online and sequential settings, existing methods typically…

When predictions support decisions they may influence the outcome they aim to predict. We call such predictions performative; the prediction influences the target. Performativity is a well-studied phenomenon in policy-making that has so far…

We present a novel study on enhancing the capability of preserving the content in world models, focusing on a property we term World Stability. Recent diffusion-based generative models have advanced the synthesis of immersive and realistic…

In personalized marketing, uplift models estimate incremental effects by modeling how customer behavior changes under alternative treatments. However, real-world data often exhibit biases - such as selection bias, spillover effects, and…

Stochastic feedback systems give rise to a variety of notions of stability. The conditions for the stability of the median, mean, and variance stability conditions differ. These conditions can be stated explicitly for scalar discrete-time…

Accurate short-term precipitation forecasting is critical for weather-sensitive decision-making in agriculture, transportation, and disaster response. Existing deep learning approaches often struggle to balance global structural consistency…

Intermittency is a common and challenging problem in demand forecasting. We introduce a new, unified framework for building intermittent demand forecasting models, which incorporates and allows to generalize existing methods in several…

Model mismatch often poses challenges in model-based controller design. This paper investigates model predictive control (MPC) of uncertain linear systems with input constraints, focusing on stability and closed-loop infinite-horizon…

Fair classification has been a topic of intense study in machine learning, and several algorithms have been proposed towards this important task. However, in a recent study, Friedler et al. observed that fair classification algorithms may…