相关论文: Modeling and Analysis of the Epidemic-Behavior Co-…
During the COVID-19 pandemic of 2019/2020, authorities have used temporary ad-hoc policy measures, such as lockdowns and mass quarantines, to slow its transmission. However, the consequences of widespread use of these unprecedented measures…
During the COVID-19 pandemic, the behavioral response to reported case numbers changed drastically over time. While a few dozen cases were enough to trigger government-induced and voluntary contact reduction in early 2020, less than a year…
Epidemic spread in a population is traditionally modeled via compartmentalized models which represent the free evolution of disease in absence of any intervention policies. In addition, these models assume full observability of disease…
An epidemic spreading in a network calls for a decision on the part of the network members: They should decide whether to protect themselves or not. Their decision depends on the trade-off between their perceived risk of being infected and…
The spread of COVID-19 has been greatly impacted by regulatory policies and behavior patterns that vary across counties, states, and countries. Population-level dynamics of COVID-19 can generally be described using a set of ordinary…
This study presents an integrated approach to understanding epidemic dynamics through a stochastic spatio-temporal simulation model on a multiplex network, blending physical and informational layers. The physical layer maps the geographic…
The concept of the mutual influence that awareness and disease may exert on each other has recently presented significant challenges. The actions individuals take to prevent contracting a disease and their level of awareness can profoundly…
In some systems, the behavior of the constituent units can create a `context' that modifies the direct interactions among them. This mechanism of indirect modification inspired us to develop a minimal model of context-dependent spreading.…
During an infectious disease outbreak, biases in the data and complexities of the underlying dynamics pose significant challenges in mathematically modelling the outbreak and designing policy. Motivated by the ongoing response to COVID-19,…
This paper is concerned with nonlinear modeling and analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic currently ravaging the planet. There are two objectives: to arrive at an appropriate model that captures the collected data faithfully, and to use that as…
We investigate a model for a mosquito-borne epidemic in which human hosts may adopt protective behaviour against vector bites in response to information on both past and current disease prevalence. Assuming that mosquitoes can also feed on…
Here we propose and implement a generalized mathematical model to find the time evolution of population in infectious diseases and apply the model to study the recent COVID-19 pandemic. Our model at the core is a non-local generalization of…
We model further development of the COVID-19 epidemic in the UK given the current data and assuming different scenarios of handling the epidemic. In this research, we further extend the stochastic model suggested in \cite{us} and…
The COVID-19 pandemic has evolved over time through multiple spatial and temporal dynamics. The varying extent of interactions among different geographical areas can result to a complex pattern of spreading so that influences between these…
Epidemic models describe the evolution of a communicable disease over time. These models are often modified to include the effects of interventions (control measures) such as vaccination, social distancing, school closings etc. Many such…
The dynamics of epidemics depend on how people's behavior changes during an outbreak. At the beginning of the epidemic, people do not know about the virus, then, after the outbreak of epidemics and alarm, they begin to comply with the…
Pandemic control measures like lock-down, restrictions on restaurants and gatherings, social-distancing have shown to be effective in curtailing the spread of COVID-19. However, their sustained enforcement has negative economic effects. To…
The COVID-19 pandemic has led to significant changes in how people are currently living their lives. To determine how to best reduce the effects of the pandemic and start reopening societies, governments have drawn insights from…
This paper introduces a microscopic approach to model epidemics, which can explicitly consider the consequences of individual's decisions on the spread of the disease. We first formulate a microscopic multi-agent epidemic model where every…
Motivated by the importance of individual differences in risk perception and behavior change in people's responses to infectious disease outbreaks (particularly the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic), we propose a heterogeneous…