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In light of widespread evidence of parameter instability in macroeconomic models, many time-varying parameter (TVP) models have been proposed. This paper proposes a nonparametric TVP-VAR model using Bayesian additive regression trees (BART)…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2023-05-08 Niko Hauzenberger , Florian Huber , Gary Koop , James Mitchell

We develop the concept of ABC-Boost (Adaptive Base Class Boost) for multi-class classification and present ABC-MART, a concrete implementation of ABC-Boost. The original MART (Multiple Additive Regression Trees) algorithm has been very…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2008-11-11 Ping Li

We present a novel prior for tree topology within Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) models. This approach quantifies the hypothetical loss in information and the loss due to complexity associated with choosing the wrong tree…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-12-30 F. Serafini , F. Leisen , C. Villa , K. Wilson

Ranking lists are often provided at regular time intervals in a range of applications, including economics, sports, marketing, and politics. Most popular methods for rank-order data postulate a linear specification for the latent scores,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-12-09 Matteo Iacopini , Eoghan O'Neill , Luca Rossini

We perform Bayesian optimization using a Gaussian process perspective on Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART). Our BART Kernel (BARK) uses tree agreement to define a posterior over piecewise-constant functions, and we explore the space…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-06-09 Toby Boyne , Jose Pablo Folch , Robert M Lee , Behrang Shafei , Ruth Misener

Decision trees are powerful for predictive modeling but often suffer from high variance when modeling continuous relationships. While algorithms like Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) excel at capturing such continuous…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-10-10 William Pattie , Arvind Krishna

In this paper, we propose Multi-Rate Bandwidth Available in Real Time (MR-BART) to estimate the end-to-end Available Bandwidth (AB) of a network path. The proposed scheme is an extension of the Bandwidth Available in Real Time (BART) which…

网络与互联网体系结构 · 计算机科学 2017-02-02 Mahboobeh Sedighizad , Babak Seyfe , Keivan Navaie

We present a Bayesian approach to model cohort-level retention rates and revenue over time. We use Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) to model the retention component which we couple with a linear model for the revenue component.…

应用统计 · 统计学 2025-04-24 Juan Camilo Orduz

Decision trees with binary splits are popularly constructed using Classification and Regression Trees (CART) methodology. For binary classification and regression models, this approach recursively divides the data into two near-homogenous…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-08-17 Jason M. Klusowski

Using data collected on almost every 9-12 years old student in Uruguay, we show how to apply Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) with random effects to study performance association with Learning Managment System (LMS) activity and…

应用统计 · 统计学 2025-07-09 Natalia da Silva , Bruno Tancredi , Ignacio Alvarez-Castro

Motivated by the Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome Network (ARDSNetwork) ARDS respiratory management (ARMA) trial, we developed a flexible Bayesian machine learning approach to estimate the average causal effect and heterogeneous causal…

应用统计 · 统计学 2024-10-29 Xinyuan Chen , Michael O. Harhay , Guangyu Tong , Fan Li

Machine learning models used in medical applications often face challenges due to the covariate shift, which occurs when there are discrepancies between the distributions of training and target data. This can lead to decreased predictive…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-12-24 Mingyang Cai , Thomas Klausch , Mark A. van de Wiel

To achieve the goal of providing the best possible care to each patient, physicians need to customize treatments for patients with the same diagnosis, especially when treating diseases that can progress further and require additional…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-10-25 Xiao Li , Brent R Logan , S M Ferdous Hossain , Erica E M Moodie

Count-compositional data arise in many different fields, including high-throughput sequencing experiments, ecological surveys, and palaeoclimate studies, where a common, important goal is to understand how covariates relate to the observed…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-10 André F. B. Menezes , Andrew C. Parnell , Keefe Murphy

Epidemiological approaches for examining human health responses to environmental exposures in observational studies often control for confounding by implementing clever matching schemes and using statistical methods based on conditional…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-02-21 Jacob Englert , Stefanie Ebelt , Howard Chang

Bayesian Causal Forests (BCF) is a causal inference machine learning model based on a highly flexible non-parametric regression and classification tool called Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART). Motivated by data from the Trends in…

机器学习 · 统计学 2023-03-10 Nathan McJames , Andrew Parnell , Yong Chen Goh , Ann O'Shea

In this paper, we introduce a new machine learning (ML) model for nonlinear regression called the Boosted Smooth Transition Regression Trees (BooST), which is a combination of boosting algorithms with smooth transition regression trees. The…

机器学习 · 统计学 2021-04-08 Yuri Fonseca , Marcelo Medeiros , Gabriel Vasconcelos , Alvaro Veiga

Random Forests (RF) and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) are two of the most widely used and highly performing classification and regression models. They aggregate equally weighted CART trees, generated randomly in RF or sequentially in…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-10-28 Dimitris Bertsimas , Yubing Cui

Implicit Quantile BART (IQ-BART) posits a non-parametric Bayesian model on the conditional quantile function, acting as a model over a conditional model for $Y$ given $X$. One of the key ingredients is augmenting the observed data…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-07-08 Sean O'Hagan , Veronika Ročková

Decision trees are widely used for classification and regression tasks in a variety of application fields due to their interpretability and good accuracy. During the past decade, growing attention has been devoted to globally optimized…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-01-28 Antonio Consolo , Edoardo Amaldi , Andrea Manno