相关论文: ProbTS: Benchmarking Point and Distributional Fore…

Time series forecasting in real-world applications requires both high predictive accuracy and interpretable uncertainty quantification. Traditional point prediction methods often fail to capture the inherent uncertainty in time series data,…

Time series forecasting is ubiquitous in the modern world. Applications range from health care to astronomy, and include climate modelling, financial trading and monitoring of critical engineering equipment. To offer value over this range…

Numerous industrial sectors necessitate models capable of providing robust forecasts across various horizons. Despite the recent strides in crafting specific architectures for time-series forecasting and developing pre-trained universal…

Many businesses and industries nowadays rely on large quantities of time series data making time series forecasting an important research area. Global forecasting models that are trained across sets of time series have shown a huge…

As the world increasingly relies on mathematical models for forecasts in different areas, effective communication of uncertainty in time series predictions is important for informed decision making. This study explores how users estimate…

Multistage stochastic programming provides a modeling framework for sequential decision-making problems that involve uncertainty. One typically overlooked aspect of this methodology is how uncertainty is incorporated into modeling.…

Diffusion models, a family of generative models based on deep learning, have become increasingly prominent in cutting-edge machine learning research. With a distinguished performance in generating samples that resemble the observed data,…

This expository paper discusses Bayesian decision analysis perspectives on problems of constrained forecasting. Foundational and pedagogic discussion contrasts decision analytic approaches with the traditional, but typically inappropriate,…

Time series forecasting is a crucial task in machine learning, as it has a wide range of applications including but not limited to forecasting electricity consumption, traffic, and air quality. Traditional forecasting models rely on rolling…

Financial time series (FinTS) record the behavior of human-brain-augmented decision-making, capturing valuable historical information that can be leveraged for profitable investment strategies. Not surprisingly, this area has attracted…

Time series forecasting aims to model temporal dependencies among variables for future state inference, holding significant importance and widespread applications in real-world scenarios. Although deep learning-based methods have achieved…

Time series modeling for predictive purpose has been an active research area of machine learning for many years. However, no sufficiently comprehensive and meanwhile substantive survey was offered so far. This survey strives to meet this…

Probabilistic forecasting is crucial for real-world spatiotemporal systems, such as climate, energy, and urban environments, where quantifying uncertainty is essential for informed, risk-aware decision-making. While diffusion models have…

Accurate forecasting of spatiotemporal data remains challenging due to complex spatial dependencies and temporal dynamics. The inherent uncertainty and variability in such data often render deterministic models insufficient, prompting a…

Accurate energy time-series forecasting is crucial for ensuring grid stability and promoting the integration of renewable energy, yet it faces significant challenges from complex temporal dependencies and the heterogeneity of multi-source…

The study of complex systems has attracted widespread attention from researchers in the fields of natural sciences, social sciences, and engineering. Prediction is one of the central issues in this field. Although most related studies have…

Modern Internet of Things (IoT) environments are monitored via a large number of IoT enabled sensing devices, with the data acquisition and processing infrastructure setting restrictions in terms of computational power and energy resources.…

Most research designing novel predictive models, or employing existing ones, assumes that training and testing data are independent and identically distributed. In practice, the data encountered at serving time often deviate from the…

We study the spatio-temporal prediction problem, which has attracted the attention of many researchers due to its critical real-life applications. In particular, we introduce a novel approach to this problem. Our approach is based on the…

Accurate forecasts are vital for supporting the decisions of modern companies. Forecasters typically select the most appropriate statistical model for each time series. However, statistical models usually presume some data generation…