相关论文: ProbTS: Benchmarking Point and Distributional Fore…

Accurate and reliable forecasting of epidemic incidences is critical for public health preparedness, yet it remains a challenging task due to complex nonlinear temporal dependencies and heterogeneous spatial interactions. Often, point…

In recent decades, new methods and approaches have been developed for forecasting intermittent demand series. However, the majority of research has focused on point forecasting, with little exploration into probabilistic intermittent demand…

Diffusion models have recently emerged as powerful frameworks for generating high-quality images. While recent studies have explored their application to time series forecasting, these approaches face significant challenges in cross-modal…

Time series data is being used everywhere, from sales records to patients' health evolution metrics. The ability to deal with this data has become a necessity, and time series analysis and forecasting are used for the same. Every Machine…

Power systems operate under uncertainty originating from multiple factors that are impossible to account for deterministically. Distributional forecasting is used to control and mitigate risks associated with this uncertainty. Recent…

With rapid adoption of deep learning in critical applications, the question of when and how much to trust these models often arises, which drives the need to quantify the inherent uncertainties. While identifying all sources that account…

In the current context of Big Data, the nature of many forecasting problems has changed from predicting isolated time series to predicting many time series from similar sources. This has opened up the opportunity to develop competitive…

We use a decision-theoretic framework to study the problem of forecasting discrete outcomes when the forecaster is unable to discriminate among a set of plausible forecast distributions because of partial identification or concerns about…

This survey delves into the application of diffusion models in time-series forecasting. Diffusion models are demonstrating state-of-the-art results in various fields of generative AI. The paper includes comprehensive background information…

This paper proposes a multi-step probabilistic forecasting framework using a single neural-network based model to generate simultaneous point and interval forecasts. Our approach ensures non-crossing prediction intervals (PIs) through a…

In the transformative landscape of smart cities, the integration of the cutting-edge web technologies into time series forecasting presents a pivotal opportunity to enhance urban planning, sustainability, and economic growth. The…

The objective of traffic prediction is to accurately forecast and analyze the dynamics of transportation patterns, considering both space and time. However, the presence of distribution shift poses a significant challenge in this field, as…

Accurate quantification of model uncertainty has long been recognized as a fundamental requirement for trusted AI. In regression tasks, uncertainty is typically quantified using prediction intervals calibrated to a specific operating point,…

Time series forecasting is a critical task in various domains, where accurate predictions can drive informed decision-making. Traditional forecasting methods often rely on current observations of variables to predict future outcomes,…

With the advent of Transformers, time series forecasting has seen significant advances, yet it remains challenging due to the need for effective sequence representation, memory construction, and accurate target projection. Time series…

Decision Focused Learning has emerged as a critical paradigm for integrating machine learning with downstream optimisation. Despite its promise, existing methodologies predominantly rely on probabilistic models and focus narrowly on task…

Spatio-temporal forecasting is crucial in transportation, logistics, and supply chain management. However, current methods struggle with large, complex datasets. We propose a dynamic, multi-modal approach that integrates the strengths of…

Multivariate time-series forecasting is vital in various domains, e.g., economic planning and weather prediction. Deep train-from-scratch models have exhibited effective performance yet require large amounts of data, which limits real-world…

The evaluation of time series forecasting models is hindered by a lack of high-quality benchmarks, leading to overestimated assessments of progress. Existing datasets suffer from issues ranging from small-scale, low-frequency, pre-training…

While diffusion models can successfully generate data and make predictions, they are predominantly designed for static images. We propose an approach for efficiently training diffusion models for probabilistic spatiotemporal forecasting,…