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This work presents an efficient approach for accelerating multilevel Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling for large-scale problems using low-fidelity machine learning models. While conventional techniques for large-scale Bayesian…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-05-21 Sohail Reddy , Hillary Fairbanks

This article considers the sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) approximation of ratios of normalizing constants associated to posterior distributions which in principle rely on continuum models. Therefore, the Monte Carlo estimation error and the…

统计计算 · 统计学 2016-03-04 Pierre Del Moral , Ajay Jasra , Kody Law , Yan Zhou

In parameter estimation problems one computes a posterior distribution over uncertain parameters defined jointly by a prior distribution, a model, and noisy data. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is often used for the numerical solution of…

A new methodology is presented for the construction of control variates to reduce the variance of additive functionals of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samplers. Our control variates are definedthrough the minimization of the asymptotic…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-07-09 Nicolas Brosse , Alain Durmus , Sean Meyn , Eric Moulines , Anand Radhakrishnan

Markov chain Monte Carlo samplers produce dependent streams of variates drawn from the limiting distribution of the Markov chain. With this as motivation, we introduce novel univariate kernel density estimators which are appropriate for the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2016-07-29 Hang J. Kim , Steven N. MacEachern , Yoonsuh Jung

The Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is used to evaluate the imaginary-time path integral of a quantum oscillator with a potential that includes both a quadratic term and a quartic term whose coupling is varied by several orders of…

计算物理 · 物理学 2020-08-27 Shikhar Mittal , Marise J. E. Westbroek , Peter R. King , Dimitri D. Vvedensky

When an unbiased estimator of the likelihood is used within a Metropolis--Hastings chain, it is necessary to trade off the number of Monte Carlo samples used to construct this estimator against the asymptotic variances of averages computed…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2014-09-16 Arnaud Doucet , Michael Pitt , George Deligiannidis , Robert Kohn

I show how any reversible Markov chain on a finite state space that is irreducible, and hence suitable for estimating expectations with respect to its invariant distribution, can be used to construct a non-reversible Markov chain on a…

概率论 · 数学 2007-06-13 Radford M. Neal

Inference after model selection presents computational challenges when dealing with intractable conditional distributions. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a common method for sampling from these distributions, but its slow convergence…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-08-22 Sifan Liu

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a powerful Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for estimating expectations with respect to continuous un-normalized probability distributions. MCMC estimators typically have higher variance than…

统计计算 · 统计学 2020-03-04 Dan Piponi , Matthew D. Hoffman , Pavel Sountsov

Recently, Stochastic Gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (SG-MCMC) methods have been proposed for scaling up Monte Carlo computations to large data problems. Whilst these approaches have proven useful in many applications, vanilla SG-MCMC…

机器学习 · 统计学 2016-12-13 Umut Şimşekli , Roland Badeau , A. Taylan Cemgil , Gaël Richard

This work addresses uncertainty quantification of electromagnetic devices determined by the eddy current problem. The multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method is used for the treatment of uncertain parameters while the devices are discretized…

计算工程、金融与科学 · 计算机科学 2020-03-24 Armin Galetzka , Zeger Bontinck , Ulrich Römer , Sebastian Schöps

Markov chain Monte Carlo methods have become standard tools in statistics to sample from complex probability measures. Many available techniques rely on discrete-time reversible Markov chains whose transition kernels build up over the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2017-02-21 Alexandre Bouchard-Côté , Sebastian J. Vollmer , Arnaud Doucet

Linear regression with measurement error in the covariates is a heavily studied topic, however, the statistics/econometrics literature is almost silent to estimating a multi-equation model with measurement error. This paper considers a…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-06-15 Georges Bresson , Anoop Chaturvedi , Mohammad Arshad Rahman , Shalabh

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is one of the most useful approaches to scientific computing because of its flexible construction, ease of use and generality. Indeed, MCMC is indispensable for performing Bayesian analysis. Two critical…

统计计算 · 统计学 2019-10-18 Vivekananda Roy

In this paper, we propose an efficient pseudo-marginal Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling approach to draw samples from posterior shape distributions for image segmentation. The computation time of the proposed approach is independent…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2018-09-05 Ertunc Erdil , Sinan Yildirim , Tolga Tasdizen , Mujdat Cetin

We introduce a new Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach designed for efficient sampling of highly correlated and multimodal posteriors. Parallel tempering, though effective, is a costly technique for sampling such posteriors. Our…

天体物理仪器与方法 · 物理学 2014-10-01 Benjamin Farr , Vicky Kalogera , Erik Luijten

We show that for any multiple-try Metropolis algorithm, one can always accept the proposal and evaluate the importance weight that is needed to correct for the bias without extra computational cost. This results in a general, convenient,…

统计计算 · 统计学 2024-10-03 Guanxun Li , Aaron Smith , Quan Zhou

The random numbers driving Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation are usually modeled as independent U(0,1) random variables. Tribble [Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms using completely uniformly distributed driving sequences (2007)…

统计理论 · 数学 2011-05-11 S. Chen , J. Dick , A. B. Owen

Two popular classes of methods for approximate inference are Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and variational inference. MCMC tends to be accurate if run for a long enough time, while variational inference tends to give better approximations…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2017-06-21 Justin Domke