相关论文: Horseshoe Priors for Time-Varying AR and GARCH Pro…
This paper introduces a Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework within a fully probabilistic setting for crop yield estimation, model selection, and uncertainty forecasting under multiple future greenhouse gas emission scenarios. By…
Dry-land ecosystem has turned into a matter of grave concern, due to growing threat of land degradation and bioproductivity-loss. Self-organized vegetation patterns are a remarkable characteristic of these ecosystems; apart from being…
In this article we present an approach that enables joint wind speed and wind power forecasts for a wind park. We combine a multivariate seasonal time varying threshold autoregressive moving average (TVARMA) model with a power threshold…
This study investigates the impacts of grazing duration and intensity on vegetation population dynamics in semi-arid ecosystems characterized by seasonal succession. A novel piecewise periodic model is proposed, dividing the annual cycle…
In the Sahel region the population depends largely on rain-fed agriculture. In West Africa in particular, climate models turn to be unable to capture some basic features of present-day climate variability. This study proposes a contribution…
This paper presents an integrated modelling assessment that estimated the sensitivities of five endogenous factors in commercial rangelands, i.e. number of active farmers, profits, stocking rate, standing herbage biomass, and soil erosion,…
Studies conducted on the experimental site of Lavalette (IRSTEA Montpellier) have shown variability in the observed agricultural yield, either attributable to spatial or temporal heterogeneities in water and nitrogen supply or to gradients…
In many drylands around the globe, vegetation self-organizes into regular spatial patterns in response to aridity stress. We consider the regularly-spaced vegetation bands, on gentle hill-slopes, that survive low rainfall conditions by…
Rural economies are largely dependent upon agriculture, which is greatly determined by climatic conditions such as rainfall. This study aims to forecast agricultural production in Maharashtra, India, which utilises annual data from the year…
Agriculture plays a crucial role in the global economy and social stability, and accurate crop yield prediction is essential for rational planting planning and decision-making. This study focuses on crop yield Time-Series Data prediction.…
Grasslands, constituting the world's second-largest terrestrial carbon sink, play a crucial role in biodiversity and the regulation of the carbon cycle. Currently, the Irish dairy sector, a significant economic contributor, grapples with…
Due to climate change, overgrazing, and deforestation, arid ecosystems are vulnerable to desertification and land degradation. As aridity increases, vegetation cover loses spatial homogeneity and self-organizes into heterogeneous vegetation…
Farmed landscapes provide a natural laboratory to test how management reshapes near-surface hydrodynamics. Combining distributed acoustic sensing with physics-based hydromechanical modeling, we tracked minute-resolution, meter-scale changes…
The main goal of this paper is an application of Bayesian model comparison, based on the posterior probabilities and posterior odds ratios, in testing the explanatory power of the set of competing GARCH (ang. Generalised Autoregressive…
Building sustainable food systems that are resilient to climate change will require improved agricultural management and policy. One common practice that is well-known to benefit crop yields is crop rotation, yet there remains limited…
Climate extremes present escalating risks to agriculture intensifying the need for reliable multi-hazard early warning systems (EWS). The situation is evolving due to climate change and hence such systems should have the intelligent to…
Climate Services (CS) provide support to decision makers across socio-economic sectors. In the agricultural sector, one of the most important CS applications is to provide timely and accurate yield forecasts based on climate prediction. In…
The use of accelerometers in wildlife tracking provides a fine-scale data source for understanding animal behavior and decision-making. Current methods in movement ecology focus on behavior as a driver of movement mechanisms. Our Markov…
We develop a Bayesian tree ensemble model to estimate heterogeneous treatment effects in censored survival data with high-dimensional covariates. Instead of imposing sparsity through the tree structure, we place a horseshoe prior directly…
Christoffersen, Jacobs, Ornthanalai, and Wang (2008) (CJOW) proposed an improved Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model for valuing European options, where the return volatility is comprised of two distinct…