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The instrumental variable (IV) design is a common approach to address hidden confounding bias. For validity, an IV must impact the outcome only through its association with the treatment. In addition, IV identification has required a…

Certain causal models involving unmeasured variables induce no independence constraints among the observed variables but imply, nevertheless, inequality contraints on the observed distribution. This paper derives a general formula for such…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2013-02-21 Judea Pearl

For settings with a binary treatment and a binary outcome, instrumental variables can be used to construct bounds on a causal treatment effect. With continuous outcomes, meaningful bounds are more difficult to obtain because the domain of…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2013-03-26 Tao Liu , Joseph W. Hogan

Indirect experiments provide a valuable framework for estimating treatment effects in situations where conducting randomized control trials (RCTs) is impractical or unethical. Unlike RCTs, indirect experiments estimate treatment effects by…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-12-06 Yash Chandak , Shiv Shankar , Vasilis Syrgkanis , Emma Brunskill

Instrumental variable (IV) methods are central to causal inference from observational data, particularly when a randomized experiment is not feasible. However, of the three conventional core IV identification conditions, only one, IV…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-09-23 Zhonghua Liu , Baoluo Sun , Ting Ye , David Richardson , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

Instrumental variable methods provide a powerful approach to estimating causal effects in the presence of unobserved confounding. But a key challenge when applying them is the reliance on untestable "exclusion" assumptions that rule out any…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-06-23 Jason Hartford , Victor Veitch , Dhanya Sridhar , Kevin Leyton-Brown

Assessing causal effects in the presence of unobserved confounding is a challenging problem. Existing studies leveraged proxy variables or multiple treatments to adjust for the confounding bias. In particular, the latter approach attributes…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-10-17 Yong Wu , Mingzhou Liu , Jing Yan , Yanwei Fu , Shouyan Wang , Yizhou Wang , Xinwei Sun

The instrumental variable method is widely used in the health and social sciences for identification and estimation of causal effects in the presence of potentially unmeasured confounding. In order to improve efficiency, multiple…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-04-19 Baoluo Sun , Zhonghua Liu , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

Machine learning practice is often impacted by confounders. Confounding can be particularly severe in remote digital health studies where the participants self-select to enter the study. While many different confounding adjustment…

应用统计 · 统计学 2019-11-14 Elias Chaibub Neto , Meghasyam Tummalacherla , Lara Mangravite , Larsson Omberg

In observational studies, treatment may be adapted to covariates at several times without a fixed protocol, in continuous time. Treatment influences covariates, which influence treatment, which influences covariates, and so on. Then even…

统计理论 · 数学 2015-09-02 Judith J. Lok

Causal inference is difficult in the presence of unobserved confounders. We introduce the instrumented common confounding (ICC) approach to (nonparametrically) identify causal effects with instruments, which are exogenous only conditional…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2022-09-20 Christian Tien

Causal mediation analysis can improve understanding of the mechanisms underlying epidemiologic associations. However, the utility of natural direct and indirect effect estimation has been limited by the assumption of no confounder of the…

应用统计 · 统计学 2020-06-16 Kara E. Rudolph , Oleg Sofrygin , Wenjing Zheng , Mark J. van der Laan

Clinical trials usually target average treatment effects, but treatment decisions are made for individuals. This tension motivates a common criticism of evidence-based medicine: a treatment that is beneficial on average may be inappropriate…

应用统计 · 统计学 2026-05-29 Zach Shahn , Mats Stensrud

We study the identification and estimation of long-term treatment effects under unobserved confounding by combining an experimental sample, where the long-term outcome is missing, with an observational sample, where the treatment assignment…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2026-01-27 Ting-Chih Hung , Yu-Chang Chen

I review recent work in the statistics literature on instrumental variables methods from an econometrics perspective. I discuss some of the older, economic, applications including supply and demand models and relate them to the recent…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2014-10-02 Guido W. Imbens

In this paper we review an approach to estimating the causal effect of a time-varying treatment on time to some event of interest. This approach is designed for the situation where the treatment may have been repeatedly adapted to patient…

统计理论 · 数学 2007-06-13 J. J. Lok , R. D. Gill , A. W. van der Vaart , J. M. Robins

Mendelian randomization is the use of genetic variants to make causal inferences from observational data. The field is currently undergoing a revolution fuelled by increasing numbers of genetic variants demonstrated to be associated with…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-08-31 Stephen Burgess , Jack Bowden , Frank Dudbridge , Simon G Thompson

Existing effect measures for compositional features are inadequate for many modern applications, for example, in microbiome research, since they display traits such as high-dimensionality and sparsity that can be poorly modelled with…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-06-02 Anton Rask Lundborg , Niklas Pfister

Randomized trials typically estimate average relative treatment effects, but decisions on the benefit of a treatment are possibly better informed by more individualized predictions of the absolute treatment effect. In case of a binary…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-08-20 J Hoogland , J IntHout , M Belias , MM Rovers , RD Riley , FE Harrell , KGM Moons , TPA Debray , JB Reitsma

The study of causal effects in the presence of unmeasured spatially varying confounders has garnered increasing attention. However, a general framework for identifiability, which is critical for reliable causal inference from observational…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-02-27 Tommy Tang , Xinran Li , Bo Li