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Parameter estimation is an important sub-field in statistics and system identification. Various methods for parameter estimation have been proposed in the literature, among which the Two-Stage (TS) approach is particularly promising, due to…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-11-21 Braghadeesh Lakshminarayanan , Cristian R. Rojas

We build a Generative Pre-trained Transformer (GPT) model from scratch to solve sequential decision making tasks arising in contexts of operations research and management science which we call OMGPT. We first propose a general sequence…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-05-21 Hanzhao Wang , Guanting Chen , Kalyan Talluri , Xiaocheng Li

Recently, the superiority of Transformer for long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) tasks has been challenged, particularly since recent work has shown that simple models can outperform numerous Transformer-based approaches. This suggests…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-10-10 Shengsheng Lin , Weiwei Lin , Wentai Wu , Songbo Wang , Yongxiang Wang

The Transformer is a highly successful deep learning model that has revolutionised the world of artificial neural networks, first in natural language processing and later in computer vision. This model is based on the attention mechanism…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-05-09 Riccardo Ughi , Eugenio Lomurno , Matteo Matteucci

The forecasting of entity trajectories at future points in time is a critical capability gap in applications across both Commercial and Defense sectors. Transformers, and specifically Generative Pre-trained Transformer (GPT) networks have…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-02-02 Nicholas Stroh

Time Series Forecasting (TSF) is an important application across many fields. There is a debate about whether Transformers, despite being good at understanding long sequences, struggle with preserving temporal relationships in time series…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-10-20 Syed Tahir Hussain Rizvi , Neel Kanwal , Muddasar Naeem

Time series encountered in practice are rarely stationary. When the data distribution changes, a forecasting model trained on past observations can lose accuracy. We study a small-footprint test-time adaptation (TTA) framework for causal…

统计金融 · 定量金融 2026-02-03 Yurui Wu , Qingying Deng , Wonou Chung , Mairui Li

TwinFormer is a hierarchical Transformer for long-sequence time-series forecasting. It divides the input into non-overlapping temporal patches and processes them in two stages: (1) a Local Informer with top-$k$ Sparse Attention models…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-12-16 Mahima Kumavat , Aditya Maheshwari

Fault diagnosis of rotating machinery is an important engineering problem. In recent years, fault diagnosis methods based on the Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) have been mature, but Transformer has not…

计算工程、金融与科学 · 计算机科学 2021-08-31 Yuhong Jin , Lei Hou , Yushu Chen

The synchrosqueezing transform, a kind of reassignment method, aims to sharpen the time-frequency representation and to separate the components of a multicomponent non-stationary signal. In this paper, we consider the short-time Fourier…

信号处理 · 电气工程与系统科学 2019-09-27 Lin Li , Haiyan Cai , Hongxia Han , Qingtang Jiang , Hongbing Ji

Long-term time-series forecasting (LTTF) has become a pressing demand in many applications, such as wind power supply planning. Transformer models have been adopted to deliver high prediction capacity because of the high computational…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-01-06 Yan Li , Xinjiang Lu , Haoyi Xiong , Jian Tang , Jiantao Su , Bo Jin , Dejing Dou

Time series prediction is crucial for understanding and forecasting complex dynamics in various domains, ranging from finance and economics to climate and healthcare. Based on Transformer architecture, one approach involves encoding…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-05-24 Xin Cheng , Xiuying Chen , Shuqi Li , Di Luo , Xun Wang , Dongyan Zhao , Rui Yan

Time series forecasting is prevalent in extensive real-world applications, such as financial analysis and energy planning. Previous studies primarily focus on time series modality, endeavoring to capture the intricate variations and…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-10-08 Jiaxiang Dong , Haixu Wu , Yuxuan Wang , Li Zhang , Jianmin Wang , Mingsheng Long

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) such as Lag-Llama, TimeGPT, Chronos, MOMENT, UniTS, and TimesFM have shown strong generalization and zero-shot capabilities for time series forecasting, anomaly detection, classification, and…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-08-26 Dhruv D. Modi , Rong Pan

In recent work on time-series prediction, Transformers and even large language models have garnered significant attention due to their strong capabilities in sequence modeling. However, in practical deployments, time-series prediction often…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-02-17 Wenxuan Xie , Fanpu Cao

Long-term time series forecasting using transformers is hampered by the quadratic complexity of self-attention and the rigidity of uniform patching, which may be misaligned with the data's semantic structure. In this paper, we introduce the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-01-05 Maximilian Reinwardt , Michael Eichelbeck , Matthias Althoff

Time series forecasting at scale presents significant challenges for modern prediction systems, particularly when dealing with large sets of synchronized series, such as in a global payment network. In such systems, three key challenges…

Multivariate time series forecasting is a pivotal task in several domains, including financial planning, medical diagnostics, and climate science. This paper presents the Neural Fourier Transform (NFT) algorithm, which combines…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-05-24 Noam Koren , Kira Radinsky

Multivariate time-series forecasting is vital in various domains, e.g., economic planning and weather prediction. Deep train-from-scratch models have exhibited effective performance yet require large amounts of data, which limits real-world…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-02-21 Ching Chang , Wei-Yao Wang , Wen-Chih Peng , Tien-Fu Chen

We propose an efficient design of Transformer-based models for multivariate time series forecasting and self-supervised representation learning. It is based on two key components: (i) segmentation of time series into subseries-level patches…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-03-07 Yuqi Nie , Nam H. Nguyen , Phanwadee Sinthong , Jayant Kalagnanam