相关论文: Including individual Customer Lifetime Value and c…

Modeling policyholders lapse behaviors is important to a life insurer since lapses affect pricing, reserving, profitability, liquidity, risk management, as well as the solvency of the insurer. Lapse risk is indeed the most significant life…

If individuals at the highest mortality risk are also least likely to lapse a life insurance policy, then lapse-supported premiums magnify adverse selection costs. As an example, we model 'Term to 100' contracts, and risk as revealed by…

Pricing actuaries typically operate within the framework of generalized linear models (GLMs). With the upswing of data analytics, our study puts focus on machine learning methods to develop full tariff plans built from both the frequency…

While abundant empirical studies support the long-range dependence (LRD) of mortality rates, the corresponding impact on mortality securities are largely unknown due to the lack of appropriate tractable models for valuation and risk…

Survival analysis studies and predicts the time of death, or other singular unrepeated events, based on historical data, while the true time of death for some instances is unknown. Survival trees enable the discovery of complex nonlinear…

This paper focuses on modelling surrender time for policyholders in the context of life insurance. In this setup, a large lapse rate at the first months of a contract is often observed, with a decrease in this rate after some months. The…

With the availability of massive amounts of data from electronic health records and registry databases, incorporating time-varying patient information to improve risk prediction has attracted great attention. To exploit the growing amount…

Model averaging techniques in the actuarial literature aim to forecast future longevity appropriately by combining forecasts derived from various models. This approach often yields more accurate predictions than those generated by a single…

We consider a stochastic game-theoretic model of an investment market in continuous time with short-lived assets and study strategies, called survival, which guarantee that the relative wealth of an investor who uses such a strategy remains…

The significance of mortality modeling extends across multiple research areas, ranging from life insurance valuation to optimal lifetime decision-making. Existing approaches, such as mortality laws and factor-based models, often fall short…

Estimating individualized treatment rules is a central task for personalized medicine. [zhao2012estimating] and [zhang2012robust] proposed outcome weighted learning to estimate individualized treatment rules directly through maximizing the…

Using a comprehensive sample of 2,585 bankruptcies from 1990 to 2019, we benchmark the performance of various machine learning models in predicting financial distress of publicly traded U.S. firms. We find that gradient boosted trees…

Vehicle insurance claims size prediction needs methods to efficiently handle these claims. Machine learning (ML) is one of the methods that solve this problem. Tree-based ensemble learning algorithms are highly effective and widely used ML…

In online retail, customer acquisition typically incurs higher costs than customer retention, motivating firms to invest in churn analytics. However, many contemporary churn models operate as opaque black boxes, limiting insight into the…

To make medium- and long-term insurance products attractive, it is essential to enable participation in stock market returns. However, to eliminate downside risk, guarantees must be included, which naturally leads to the challenge of…

The state-of-the-art proposes Life Care Annuities, that have been recently designed as variable annuity contracts with Long-Term Care payouts and Guaranteed Lifelong Withdrawal Benefits. In this paper, we propose more general features for…

Risk prediction is central to both clinical medicine and public health. While many machine learning models have been developed to predict mortality, they are rarely applied in the clinical literature, where classification tasks typically…

Understanding customer lifetime value is key to nurturing long-term customer relationships, however, estimating it is far from straightforward. In the retail banking industry, commonly used approaches rely on simple heuristics and do not…

Companies across the globe are keen on targeting potential high-value customers in an attempt to expand revenue and this could be achieved only by understanding the customers more. Customer Lifetime Value (CLV) is the total monetary value…

We propose a versatile framework for survival analysis that combines advanced concepts from statistics with deep learning. The presented framework is based on piecewise exponential models and thereby supports various survival tasks, such as…