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Volatility forecasting is essential for risk management and decision-making in financial markets. Traditional models like Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) effectively capture volatility clustering but often…

数理金融 · 定量金融 2024-10-23 Pulikandala Nithish Kumar , Nneka Umeorah , Alex Alochukwu

A central question in neuroscience is how self-organizing dynamic interactions in the brain emerge on their relatively static structural backbone. Due to the complexity of spatial and temporal dependencies between different brain areas,…

Identifying latent interactions within complex systems is key to unlocking deeper insights into their operational dynamics, including how their elements affect each other and contribute to the overall system behavior. For instance, in…

系统与控制 · 电气工程与系统科学 2024-04-30 Noga Mudrik , Eva Yezerets , Yenho Chen , Christopher Rozell , Adam Charles

We study the problem of graph structure identification, i.e., of recovering the graph of dependencies among time series. We model these time series data as components of the state of linear stochastic networked dynamical systems. We assume…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-06-29 Sérgio Machado , Anirudh Sridhar , Paulo Gil , Jorge Henriques , José M. F. Moura , Augusto Santos

A discrete-time modulus consensus model is considered in which the interaction among a family of networked agents is described by a time-dependent gain graph whose vertices correspond to agents and whose arcs are assigned complex numbers…

系统与控制 · 计算机科学 2018-02-27 L. Wang , J. Liu , A. S. Morse , B. D. O. Anderson , D. Fullmer

We study causal effect estimation under interference from network data. We work under the chain-graph formulation pioneered in Tchetgen Tchetgen et. al (2021). Our first result shows that polynomial time evaluation of treatment effects is…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-12-10 Sohom Bhattacharya , Subhabrata Sen

Excitatory point processes (i.e., event flows) occurring over dynamic graphs (i.e., evolving topologies) provide a fine-grained model to capture how discrete events may spread over time and space. How to effectively steer the event flows by…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-04-16 Zitao Song , Wendi Ren , Shuang Li

A graphical model is a structured representation of the data generating process. The traditional method to reason over random variables is to perform inference in this graphical model. However, in many cases the generating process is only a…

机器学习 · 统计学 2019-10-31 Victor Garcia Satorras , Zeynep Akata , Max Welling

Recent work has shown promising results in causal discovery by leveraging interventional data with gradient-based methods, even when the intervened variables are unknown. However, previous work assumes that the correspondence between…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-07-12 Gonçalo R. A. Faria , André F. T. Martins , Mário A. T. Figueiredo

Over the past two decades, complex network theory provided the ideal framework for investigating the intimate relationships between the topological properties characterizing the wiring of connections among a system's unitary components and…

Understanding leadership dynamics in collective behavior is a key challenge in animal ecology, swarm robotics, and intelligent transportation. Traditional information-theoretic approaches, including Transfer Entropy (TE) and Time-Lagged…

多智能体系统 · 计算机科学 2025-07-08 Thayanne França da Silva , José Everardo Bessa Maia

Learning feature interactions is the key to success for the large-scale CTR prediction in Ads ranking and recommender systems. In industry, deep neural network-based models are widely adopted for modeling such problems. Researchers proposed…

信息检索 · 计算机科学 2023-01-20 YaChen Yan , Liubo Li

We study human mobility networks through timeseries of contacts between individuals. Our proposed Random Walkers Induced temporal Graph (RWIG) model generates temporal graph sequences based on independent random walkers that traverse an…

社会与信息网络 · 计算机科学 2024-09-16 Anton-David Almasan , Sergey Shvydun , Ingo Scholtes , Piet Van Mieghem

Dynamic functional connectivity is an effective measure for the brain's responses to continuous stimuli. We propose an inferential method to detect the dynamic changes of brain networks based on time-varying graphical models. Whereas most…

应用统计 · 统计学 2020-06-23 Dingjue Ji , Junwei Lu , Yiliang Zhang , Hongyu Zhao , Siyuan Gao

Quantifying relationships between components of a complex system is critical to understanding the rich network of interactions that characterize the behavior of the system. Traditional methods for detecting pairwise dependence of time…

数据分析、统计与概率 · 物理学 2024-04-10 Aria Nguyen , Oscar McMullin , Joseph T. Lizier , Ben D. Fulcher

Time series anomaly detection aims to identify unusual patterns in data or deviations from systems' expected behavior. The reconstruction-based methods are the mainstream in this task, which learn point-wise representation via unsupervised…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-05-16 Mengxuan Li , Ke Liu , Hongyang Chen , Jiajun Bu , Hongwei Wang , Haishuai Wang

The central nervous system is composed of many individual units -- from cells to areas -- that are connected with one another in a complex pattern of functional interactions that supports perception, action, and cognition. One natural and…

神经元与认知 · 定量生物学 2017-04-03 Ann E. Sizemore , Danielle S. Bassett

Graphs are an intuitive way to represent relationships between variables in fields such as finance and neuroscience. However, these graphs often need to be inferred from data. In this paper, we propose a novel framework to infer a latent…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-10-25 Jedidiah Harwood , Debashis Paul , Jie Peng

Network science provides valuable insights across numerous disciplines including sociology, biology, neuroscience and engineering. A task of major practical importance in these application domains is inferring the network structure from…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2019-05-01 Vassilis N. Ioannidis , Yanning Shen , Georgios B. Giannakis

Many time-evolving systems in nature, society and technology leave traces of the interactions within them. These interactions form temporal networks that reflect the states of the systems. In this work, we pursue a coarse-grained…

社会与信息网络 · 计算机科学 2019-02-07 Naoki Masuda , Petter Holme