相关论文: Transformative AGI by 2043 is <1% likely

Little demonstrable progress has been made toward AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) since the term was coined some 20 years ago. In spite of the fantastic breakthroughs in Statistical AI such as AlphaZero, ChatGPT, and Stable Diffusion…

Transformative AI technologies have the potential to reshape critical aspects of society in the near future. However, in order to properly prepare policy initiatives for the arrival of such technologies accurate forecasts and timelines are…

We argue that a key reasoning skill that any advanced AI, say GPT-4, should master in order to qualify as 'thinking machine', or AGI, is hypothetic-deductive reasoning. Problem-solving or question-answering can quite generally be construed…

AI that can accelerate research could drive a century of technological progress over just a few years. During such a period, new technological or political developments will raise consequential and hard-to-reverse decisions, in rapid…

Research has a long history of discussing what is superior in predicting certain outcomes: statistical methods or the human brain. This debate has repeatedly been sparked off by the remarkable technological advances in the field of…

A traditional approach to assessing emerging intelligence in the theory of intelligent systems is based on the similarity, "imitation" of human-like actions and behaviors, benchmarking the performance of intelligent systems on the scale of…

We present an alternative methodology for the analysis of algorithms, based on the concept of expected discounted reward. This methodology naturally handles algorithms that do not always terminate, so it can (theoretically) be used with…

The Technological Singularity; that is, the possibility of achieving a General Artificial Intelligence (AGI) that surpasses human intelligence, is one of the vital paradigms of today's humanity. However, until now only opinions about its…

Dreams of machines rivaling human intelligence have shaped the field of AI since its inception. Yet, the very meaning of human-level AI or artificial general intelligence (AGI) remains elusive and contested. Definitions of AGI embrace a…

We study whether Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) admits a coherent theoretical definition that supports absolute claims of existence, robustness, or self-verification. We formalize AGI axiomatically as a distributional,…

Artificial general intelligence (AGI) has gained global recognition as a future technology due to the emergence of breakthrough large language models and chatbots such as GPT-4 and ChatGPT, respectively. Compared to conventional AI models,…

We describe a path to humanity safely thriving with powerful Artificial General Intelligences (AGIs) by building them to provably satisfy human-specified requirements. We argue that this will soon be technically feasible using advanced AI…

A recent paper (van Rooij et al. 2024) claims to have proved that achieving human-like intelligence using learning from data is intractable in a complexity-theoretic sense. We point out that the proof relies on an unjustified assumption…

The development of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) promises to be a major event. Along with its many potential benefits, it also raises serious safety concerns (Bostrom, 2014). The intention of this paper is to provide an easily…

Producing an artificial general intelligence (AGI) has been an elusive goal in artificial intelligence (AI) research for some time. An AGI would have the capability, like a human, to be exposed to a new problem domain, learn about it and…

The evolution of artificial intelligence (AI) has profoundly impacted human society, driving significant advancements in multiple sectors. AGI, distinguished by its ability to execute diverse real-world tasks with efficiency and…

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is promoted by technology leaders and investors as a system capable of performing all human intellectual tasks, and potentially surpassing them. Despite its vague definition and uncertain feasibility,…

The artificial intelligence industry is not an isolated economic phenomenon; it is the current physical substrate for a broader, multi-billion-year process: the evolution of an abstract intelligence on Earth. As the scale of computation…

OpenAI's o3 achieves a high score of 87.5 % on ARC-AGI, a benchmark proposed to measure intelligence. This raises the question whether systems based on Large Language Models (LLMs), particularly o3, demonstrate intelligence and progress…

In recent years we observed rapid and significant advancements in artificial intelligence (A.I.). So much so that many wonder how close humanity is to developing an A.I. model that can achieve human level of intelligence, also known as…