相关论文: Forecast reconciliation for vaccine supply chain o…

Forecast reconciliation has become a prominent topic in recent forecasting literature, with a primary distinction made between cross-sectional and temporal hierarchies. This work focuses on temporal hierarchies, such as aggregating monthly…

This paper focuses on forecasting hierarchical time-series data, where each higher-level observation equals the sum of its corresponding lower-level time series. In such contexts, the forecast values should be coherent, meaning that the…

We encounter time series data in many domains such as finance, physics, business, and weather. One of the main tasks of time series analysis, one that helps to take informed decisions under uncertainty, is forecasting. Time series are often…

In numerous applications, it is required to produce forecasts for multiple time-series at different hierarchy levels. An obvious example is given by the supply chain in which demand forecasting may be needed at a store, city, or country…

The problem of combining multiple forecasts of related quantities that obey expected equality and additivity constraints, often referred to a hierarchical forecast reconciliation, is naturally stated as a simple optimization problem. In…

Hierarchical time series are common in several applied fields. The forecasts for these time series are required to be coherent, that is, to satisfy the constraints given by the hierarchy. The most popular technique to enforce coherence is…

Timely and effective decision-making is critical during epidemics to reduce preventable infections and deaths. This demands integrated models that jointly capture disease dynamics, vaccine distribution, regional disparities, and behavioral…

Time series often appear in an additive hierarchical structure. In such cases, time series on higher levels are the sums of their subordinate time series. This hierarchical structure places a natural constraint on forecasts. However,…

In this paper, we propose a machine learning approach for forecasting hierarchical time series. When dealing with hierarchical time series, apart from generating accurate forecasts, one needs to select a suitable method for producing…

Forecast reconciliation is a post-forecasting process aimed to improve the quality of the base forecasts for a system of hierarchical/grouped time series (Hyndman et al., 2011). Contemporaneous (cross-sectional) and temporal hierarchies…

Some time series can be hierarchically organized into levels based on certain characteristics, such as geography or other attributes of interest. These series are referred to as hierarchical time series. Typically, forecasts are generated…

The practical importance of coherent forecasts in hierarchical forecasting has inspired many studies on forecast reconciliation. Under this approach, so-called base forecasts are produced for every series in the hierarchy and are…

A novel framework for hierarchical forecast updating is presented, addressing a critical gap in the forecasting literature. By assuming a temporal hierarchy structure, the innovative approach extends hierarchical forecast reconciliation to…

In hierarchical forecasting, the process of forecast reconciliation transforms a set of "base" or "raw" forecasts, which do not satisfy the hierarchical aggregation constraints in the real data, into a set of "coherent" forecasts, which do…

Time series data in the retail world are particularly rich in terms of dimensionality, and these dimensions can be aggregated in groups or hierarchies. Valuable information is nested in these complex structures, which helps to predict the…

Forecast reconciliation has attracted significant research interest in recent years, with most studies taking the hierarchy of time series as given. We extend existing work that uses time series clustering to construct hierarchies, with the…

Cross-temporal forecast reconciliation aims to ensure consistency across forecasts made at different temporal and cross-sectional levels. We explore the relationships between sequential, iterative, and optimal combination approaches, and…

Aggregation constraints, arising from geographical or sectoral division, frequently emerge in a large set of time series. Coherent forecasts of these constrained series are anticipated to conform to their hierarchical structure organized by…

In recent works by Yang et al. (2017a,b), and Yagli et al. (2019), geographical, temporal, and sequential deterministic reconciliation of hierarchical photovoltaic (PV) power generation have been considered for a simulated PV dataset in…

Hierarchical forecasting with reconciliation requires forecasting values of a hierarchy (e.g.~customer demand in a state and district), such that forecast values are linked (e.g.~ district forecasts should add up to the state forecast).…