相关论文: Reporting delays: a widely neglected impact factor…

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted delayed reporting as a significant impediment to effective disease surveillance and decision-making. In the absence of timely data, statistical models which account for delays can be adopted to nowcast…

COVID-19 data released by public health authorities features the presence of notable time-delays, corresponding to the difference between actual time of infection and identification of infection. These delays have several causes, including…

The advent of the COVID-19 pandemic has instigated unprecedented changes in many countries around the globe, putting a significant burden on the health sectors, affecting the macro economic conditions, and altering social interactions…

COVID-19 pandemic has reshaped our world in a timescale much shorter than what we can understand. Particularities of SARS-CoV-2, such as its persistence in surfaces and the lack of a curative treatment or vaccine against COVID-19, have…

The new corona virus disease -- COVID-2019 -- is rapidly spreading through the world. The availability of unbiased timely statistics of trends in disease events are a key to effective responses. But due to reporting delays, the most…

Governments around the world continue to act to contain and mitigate the spread of COVID-19. The rapidly evolving situation compels officials and executives to continuously adapt policies and social distancing measures depending on the…

Epidemiological delays, such as incubation periods, serial intervals, and hospital lengths of stay, are among key quantities in infectious disease epidemiology that inform public health policy and clinical practice. This information is used…

The role of epidemiological models is crucial for informing public health officials during a public health emergency, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. However, traditional epidemiological models fail to capture the time-varying effects of…

In the wake of the 2020 COVID-19 epidemic, much work has been performed on the development of mathematical models for the simulation of the epidemic, and of disease models generally. Most works follow the susceptible-infected-removed (SIR)…

Conducting disparity assessments at regular time intervals is critical for surfacing potential biases in decision-making and improving outcomes across demographic groups. Because disparity assessments fundamentally depend on the…

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought forth the importance of epidemic forecasting for decision makers in multiple domains, ranging from public health to the economy as a whole. While forecasting epidemic progression is frequently…

Over the past few months, the outbreak of Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has been expanding over the world. A reliable and accurate dataset of the cases is vital for scientists to conduct related research and for policy-makers to make…

Accurate forecasts for COVID-19 are necessary for better preparedness and resource management. Specifically, deciding the response over months or several months requires accurate long-term forecasts which is particularly challenging as the…

This paper studies if and to which extent COVID-19 epidemics can be controlled by authorities taking decisions on public health measures on the basis of daily reports of swab test results, active cases and total cases. A suitably simplified…

Knowing the infection fatality ratio (IFR) is of crucial importance for evidence-based epidemic management: for immediate planning; for balancing the life years saved against the life years lost due to the consequences of management; and…

Estimates from infectious disease models have constituted a significant part of the scientific evidence used to inform the response to the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK. These estimates can vary strikingly in their bias and variability.…

Because of the rapid spread of COVID-19 to almost every part of the globe, huge volumes of data and case studies have been made available, providing researchers with a unique opportunity to find trends and make discoveries like never…

Infectious disease forecasting is of great interest to the public health community and policymakers, since forecasts can provide insight into disease dynamics in the near future and inform interventions. Due to delays in case reporting,…

We demonstrate the ability of statistical data assimilation to identify the measurements required for accurate state and parameter estimation in an epidemiological model for the novel coronavirus disease COVID-19. Our context is an effort…

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a public health emergency of international concern affecting more than 200 countries and territories worldwide. As of September 30, 2020, it has caused a pandemic outbreak with more than 33…