相关论文: Improvements in Age-Specific Mortality at the Olde…

This work introduces a Bayesian smoothing approach for the joint graduation of mortality rates across multiple populations. In particular, dynamical linear models are used to induce smoothness across ages through structured dependence,…

Age-specific mortality rates are often disaggregated by different attributes, such as sex, state and ethnicity. Forecasting age-specific mortality rates at the national and sub-national levels plays an important role in developing social…

Producing subnational estimates of the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) is a vital goal for the United Nations to reduce inequalities in mortality and well-being across the globe. There is a great disparity in U5MR between high-income and…

To better understand mortality change with age capturing the variability in individuals' rates of aging, we performed comprehensive analysis of statistical properties of a cumulative index of age-associated disorders (deficits), called a…

Understanding and modeling mortality patterns, especially differences in mortality rates between populations, is vital for demographic analysis and public health planning. We compare three statistical models within the age-period framework…

Although the analysis of human mortality has a well-established history, the attempt to accurately forecast future death-rate patterns for different age groups and time horizons still attracts active research. Such a predictive focus has…

We present a two-stage methodology for reconstructing Alzheimer's disease (AD) incidence over time using ensemble Kalman inversion (EKI) applied to mortality data. In the first stage, we use EKI to infer temporal trends in all-cause and…

The Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) provides a comprehensive multimodal neuroimaging resource for studying aging and Alzheimer's disease (AD). Since its second wave, ADNI has increasingly collected resting-state…

The last two centuries have seen a significant increase in life expectancy. Although past trends suggest that mortality will continue to decline in the future, uncertainty and instability about the development is greatly increased due to…

When modeling sub-national mortality rates, it is important to incorporate any possible correlation among sub-populations to improve forecast accuracy. Moreover, forecasts at the sub-national level should aggregate consistently across the…

An essential input of annuity pricing is the future retiree mortality. From observed age-specific mortality data, modeling and forecasting can be taken place in two routes. On the one hand, we can first truncate the available data to…

Mortality rates are often disaggregated by different attributes, such as sex, state, education, religion or ethnicity. Forecasting mortality rates at the national and sub-national levels plays an important role in making social policies…

Quantifying the number of deaths caused by the COVID-19 crisis has been an ongoing challenge for scientists, and no golden standard to do so has yet been established. We propose a principled approach to calculate age-adjusted yearly excess…

Objective: To exploit state variations in infant mortality, identify diagnoses that contributed to reduction of the infant mortality rate (IMR), and examine factors associated with preterm related mortality rate (PMR). Methods: Using linked…

Accurate and precise estimates of the under-5 mortality rate (U5MR) are an important health summary for countries. However, full survival curves allow us to better understand the pattern of mortality in children under five. Modern…

A multilevel functional data method is adapted for forecasting age-specific mortality for two or more populations in developed countries with high-quality vital registration systems. It uses multilevel functional principal component…

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is the fifth-leading cause of death among Americans aged 65 and older. Screening and early detection of AD and related dementias (ADRD) are critical for timely intervention and for identifying clinical trial…

Estimates of the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) are used to track progress in reducing child mortality and to evaluate countries' performance related to Millennium Development Goal 4. However, for the great majority of developing…

The decline in interest rates and economic stabilization has heightened the importance of accurate mortality rate forecasting, particularly in insurance and pension markets. Multi-step-ahead predictions are crucial for public health,…

Kernel smoothing represents a useful approach in the graduation of mortality rates. Though there exist several options for performing kernel smoothing in statistical software packages, there have been very few contributions to date that…