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First, we analyze the variance of the Cross Validation (CV)-based estimators used for estimating the performance of classification rules. Second, we propose a novel estimator to estimate this variance using the Influence Function (IF)…

机器学习 · 统计学 2021-11-10 Waleed A. Yousef

Instrumental variables (IVs) are extensively used to estimate treatment effects when the treatment and outcome are confounded by unmeasured confounders; however, weak IVs are often encountered in empirical studies and may cause problems.…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-10-19 Siyu Heng , Bo Zhang , Xu Han , Scott A. Lorch , Dylan S. Small

Instrumental variable (IV) regression is a standard strategy for learning causal relationships between confounded treatment and outcome variables from observational data by utilizing an instrumental variable, which affects the outcome only…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-06-28 Liyuan Xu , Yutian Chen , Siddarth Srinivasan , Nando de Freitas , Arnaud Doucet , Arthur Gretton

Instrumental variables (IV) methods are central to applied microeconomics. While classical approaches assume linear models with constant effects, recent literature has shifted toward the local average treatment effect (LATE) framework to…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2026-05-15 Tymon Słoczyński , Liyang Sun , S. Derya Uysal

We develop a framework for quantifying omitted variable bias (OVB) in nonlinear instrumental variable (IV) estimators, including the local average treatment effect (LATE), the LATE for the treated (LATT), and the partially linear IV model…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2026-04-07 Yu-Min Yen

Instrumental variable (IV) analyses are becoming common in health services research and epidemiology. Most IV analyses use naturally occurring instruments, such as distance to a hospital. In these analyses, investigators must assume the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-07-04 Zach Branson , Luke Keele

Principal stratification is a framework for making sense of causal effects conditioned on variables that may themselves have been affected by the treatment. For instance, in an evaluation of an educational intervention, some subjects in the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-05 Adam C. Sales , Kirk P. Vanacore , Erin R. Ottmar

In this note, we propose to use sparse methods (e.g. LASSO, Post-LASSO, sqrt-LASSO, and Post-sqrt-LASSO) to form first-stage predictions and estimate optimal instruments in linear instrumental variables (IV) models with many instruments in…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2017-10-05 Alexandre Belloni , Victor Chernozhukov , Christian Hansen

In content-based online platforms, use of aggregate user feedback (say, the sum of votes) is commonplace as the "gold standard" for measuring content quality. Use of vote aggregates, however, is at odds with the existing empirical…

社会与信息网络 · 计算机科学 2019-10-03 Himel Dev , Karrie Karahalios , Hari Sundaram

Theoretical guarantees for causal inference using propensity scores are partly based on the scores behaving like conditional probabilities. However, scores between zero and one, especially when outputted by flexible statistical estimators,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-11-12 Rom Gutman , Ehud Karavani , Yishai Shimoni

In pharmacoepidemiology research, instrumental variables (IVs) are variables that strongly predict treatment but have no causal effect on the outcome of interest except through the treatment. There remain concerns about the inclusion of IVs…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-03-22 Yuxi Tian , Nicole Pratt , Laura L Hester , George Hripcsak , Martijn J Schuemie , Marc A Suchard

Instrumental variable (IV) strategies are widely used in political science to establish causal relationships. However, the identifying assumptions required by an IV design are demanding, and it remains challenging for researchers to assess…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2023-11-08 Apoorva Lal , Mac Lockhart , Yiqing Xu , Ziwen Zu

G-computation has become a widely used robust method for estimating unconditional (marginal) treatment effects with covariate adjustment in the analysis of randomized clinical trials. Statistical inference in this context typically relies…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-03-18 Xin Zhang , Haitao Chu , Lin Liu , Satrajit Roychoudhury

Multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP) is a popular method for addressing selection bias in subgroup estimation, with broad applications across fields from social sciences to public health. In this paper, we examine the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-03-06 Yajuan Si

Studies investigating the causal effects of spatially varying exposures on outcomes often rely on observational and spatially indexed data. A prevalent challenge is unmeasured spatial confounding, where an unobserved spatially varying…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-11-19 Sophie M. Woodward , Mauricio Tec , Francesca Dominici

Instrumental variable analysis is a widely used method to estimate causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. When the instruments, exposure and outcome are not measured in the same sample, Angrist and Krueger (1992)…

统计理论 · 数学 2018-09-07 Qingyuan Zhao , Jingshu Wang , Jack Bowden , Dylan S. Small

Many policy evaluations occur in settings where treatment is randomized at the cluster level, and there is treatment noncompliance within each cluster. For example, villages might be assigned to treatment and control, but residents in each…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-08-16 Hyunseung Kang , Luke Keele

In practice, observations are often contaminated by noise, making the resulting sample covariance matrix to be an information-plus-noise-type covariance matrix. Aiming to make inferences about the spectra of the underlying true covariance…

统计理论 · 数学 2015-08-25 Ningning Xia , Xinghua Zheng

The instrumental variable (IV) approach is commonly used to infer causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. Existing methods typically aim to estimate the mean causal effects, whereas a few other methods focus on quantile…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-03-13 Anastasiia Holovchak , Sorawit Saengkyongam , Nicolai Meinshausen , Xinwei Shen

A simple device for balancing for a continuous covariate in clinical trials is to stratify by whether the covariate is above or below some target value, typically the predicted median. This raises an issue as to which model should be used…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-10-24 Stephen Senn , Franz König , Martin Posch