相关论文: Bayesian CART models for insurance claims frequenc…

The willingness to trust predictions formulated by automatic algorithms is key in a vast number of domains. However, a vast number of deep architectures are only able to formulate predictions without an associated uncertainty. In this…

We consider the task of discovering gene regulatory networks, which are defined as sets of genes and the corresponding transcription factors which regulate their expression levels. This can be viewed as a variable selection problem,…

In all areas of human knowledge, datasets are increasing in both size and complexity, creating the need for richer statistical models. This trend is also true for economic data, where high-dimensional and nonlinear/nonparametric inference…

Over the last decades, many prognostic models based on artificial intelligence techniques have been used to provide detailed predictions in healthcare. Unfortunately, the real-world observational data used to train and validate these models…

Ensemble decision tree methods such as XGBoost, Random Forest, and Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) have gained enormous popularity in data science for their superior performance in machine learning regression and classification…

We develop a new Bayesian modelling framework for the class of higher-order, variable-memory Markov chains, and introduce an associated collection of methodological tools for exact inference with discrete time series. We show that a version…

In this paper, we propose two important extensions to cluster-weighted models (CWMs). First, we extend CWMs to have generalized cluster-weighted models (GCWMs) by allowing modeling of non-Gaussian distribution of the continuous covariates,…

In the current insurance literature, prediction of insurance claims in the regression problem is often performed with a statistical model. This model-based approach may potentially suffer from several drawbacks: (i) model misspecification,…

Bayesian Causal Forests (BCF) is a causal inference machine learning model based on a highly flexible non-parametric regression and classification tool called Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART). Motivated by data from the Trends in…

In this paper we develop the randomized Sharded Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (SBT) model. We introduce a randomization auxiliary variable and a sharding tree to decide partitioning of data, and fit each partition component to a…

This paper introduces a method for pricing insurance policies using market data. The approach is designed for scenarios in which the insurance company seeks to enter a new market, in our case: pet insurance, lacking historical data. The…

The study of dependence between random variables under external influences is a challenging problem in multivariate analysis. We address this by proposing a novel semi-parametric approach for conditional copula models using Bayesian…

Learning the distribution of a continuous or categorical response variable $\boldsymbol y$ given its covariates $\boldsymbol x$ is a fundamental problem in statistics and machine learning. Deep neural network-based supervised learning…

We develop a Bayesian non-parametric quantile panel regression model. Within each quantile, the response function is a convex combination of a linear model and a non-linear function, which we approximate using Bayesian Additive Regression…

Uncertainty of decisions in safety-critical engineering applications can be estimated on the basis of the Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique of averaging over decision models. The use of decision tree (DT) models assists…

This paper addresses significant obstacles that arise from the widespread use of machine learning models in the insurance industry, with a specific focus on promoting fairness. The initial challenge lies in effectively leveraging unlabeled…

The problem of estimating the ratio of the means of a two-component Poisson mixture model is considered, when each component is subject to zero-inflation, i.e., excess zero counts. The. resulting {\it zero-inflated Poisson mixture (ZIPM)…

In a Gaussian graphical model, the conditional independence between two variables are characterized by the corresponding zero entries in the inverse covariance matrix. Maximum likelihood method using the smoothly clipped absolute deviation…

In Bayesian learning of Gaussian graphical model structure, it is common to restrict attention to certain classes of graphs and approximate the posterior distribution by repeatedly moving from one graph to another, using MCMC or methods…

Increasingly complex applications involve large datasets in combination with non-linear and high dimensional mathematical models. In this context, statistical inference is a challenging issue that calls for pragmatic approaches that take…