相关论文: Incorporating Expert Opinion on Observable Quantit…

In decision modelling with time to event data, there are a variety of parametric models which could be used to extrapolate the survivor function. Each of these implies a different hazard function and in situations where there is moderate…

The prior distribution for the unknown model parameters plays a crucial role in the process of statistical inference based on Bayesian methods. However, specifying suitable priors is often difficult even when detailed prior knowledge is…

Objectives: The aim of this paper is to contrast the retrospective and prospective use of experts beliefs in choosing between survival models in economic evaluations. Methods: The use of experts retrospective (posterior) beliefs is…

This article introduces a new method for eliciting prior distributions from experts. The method models an expert decision-making process to infer a prior probability distribution for a rare event $A$. More specifically, assuming there…

We propose a framework for general Bayesian inference. We argue that a valid update of a prior belief distribution to a posterior can be made for parameters which are connected to observations through a loss function rather than the…

This paper presents some ideas and results of using uncertainty management methods in the presence of data in preference to other statistical and machine learning methods. A medical domain is used as a test-bed with data available from a…

We introduce a new protocol for prediction with expert advice in which each expert evaluates the learner's and his own performance using a loss function that may change over time and may be different from the loss functions used by the…

Parameter estimation in linear errors-in-variables models typically requires that the measurement error distribution be known (or estimable from replicate data). A generalized method of moments approach can be used to estimate model…

We study a classification problem with three key challenges: pervasive informative missingness, the integration of partial prior expert knowledge into the learning process, and the need for interpretable decision rules. We propose a…

Model-agnostic feature attributions can provide local insights in complex ML models. If the explanation is correct, a domain expert can validate and trust the model's decision. However, if it contradicts the expert's knowledge, related work…

With increased interest in adopting AI methods for clinical diagnosis, a vital step towards safe deployment of such tools is to ensure that the models not only produce accurate predictions but also do not generalize to data regimes where…

We consider an empirical likelihood inference for parameters defined by general estimating equations when some components of the random observations are subject to missingness. As the nature of the estimating equations is wide-ranging, we…

In empirical studies, the data usually don't include all the variables of interest in an economic model. This paper shows the identification of unobserved variables in observations at the population level. When the observables are distinct…

Confirmation bias is a cognitive bias that adversely affects management decisions, and mathematical modelling is an aid to its detailed understanding. Bias in opinion update about the value of a parameter is modelled here assuming that…

To estimate causal effects from observational data, an applied researcher must impose beliefs. The instrumental variables exclusion restriction, for example, represents the belief that the instrument has no direct effect on the outcome of…

A stream of algorithmic advances has steadily increased the popularity of the Bayesian approach as an inference paradigm, both from the theoretical and applied perspective. Even with apparent successes in numerous application fields, a…

Existing approaches to model uncertainty typically either compare models using a quantitative model selection criterion or evaluate posterior model probabilities having set a prior. In this paper, we propose an alternative strategy which…

This paper considers an empirical likelihood inference for parameters defined by general estimating equations, when data are missing at random. The efficiency of existing estimators depends critically on correctly specifying the conditional…

We study loss functions that measure the accuracy of a prediction based on multiple data points simultaneously. To our knowledge, such loss functions have not been studied before in the area of property elicitation or in machine learning…

Incorporation of expert information in inference or decision settings is often important, especially in cases where data are unavailable, costly or unreliable. One approach is to elicit prior quantiles from an expert and then to fit these…