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There is a well-known problem in Null Hypothesis Significance Testing: many statistically significant results fail to replicate in subsequent experiments. We show that this problem arises because standard `point-form null' significance…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-02-06 Fintan Costello , Paul Watts

Mediation analysis in causal inference typically concentrates on one binary exposure, using deterministic interventions to split the average treatment effect into direct and indirect effects through a single mediator. Yet, real-world…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-07-07 David B. McCoy , Alan E. Hubbard , Mark van der Laan , Alejandro Schuler

The primary goal of randomized trials is to compare the effects of different interventions on some outcome of interest. In addition to the treatment assignment and outcome, data on baseline covariates, such as demographic characteristics or…

应用统计 · 统计学 2014-01-09 Alisa J. Stephens , Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen , Victor De Gruttola

Often linear regression is used to perform mediation analysis. However, in many instances, the underlying relationships may not be linear, as in the case of placental-fetal hormones and fetal development. Although, the exact functional form…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-10-16 Qing Yin , Jong-Hyeon Jeong , Xu Qin , Shyamal D Peddada , Jennifer Adibi

Mediation analysis is a useful tool to evaluate surrogate endpoints in clinical trials. We propose a novel method, the M-survival learner, for estimating heterogeneous indirect treatment effects in the presence of censored outcomes. The…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-16 Xingyu Li , Qing Liu , Xun Jiang , Hong Amy Xia , Brian P. Hobbs , Peng Wei

Online controlled experiments, such as A/B-tests, are commonly used by modern tech companies to enable continuous system improvements. Despite their paramount importance, A/B-tests are expensive: by their very definition, a percentage of…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-01-09 Shubham Baweja , Neeti Pokharna , Aleksei Ustimenko , Olivier Jeunen

When assessing the causal effect of a binary exposure using observational data, confounder imbalance across exposure arms must be addressed. Matching methods, including propensity score-based matching, can be used to deconfound the causal…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-10-01 Ernesto Ulloa-Pérez , Marco Carone , Alex Luedtke

In causal analysis, understanding the causal mechanisms through which an intervention or treatment affects an outcome is often of central interest. We propose a test to evaluate (i) whether the causal effect of a treatment that is randomly…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2026-03-05 Martin Huber , Kevin Kloiber , Lukáš Lafférs

The presence of intermediate confounders, also called recanting witnesses, is a fundamental challenge to the investigation of causal mechanisms in mediation analysis, preventing the identification of natural path-specific effects. Proposed…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-01-10 Tat-Thang Vo , Nicholas Williams , Richard Liu , Kara E. Rudolph , Ivan Dıaz

Meta-analysis is an important statistical technique for synthesizing the results of multiple studies regarding the same or closely related research question. So-called meta-regression extends meta-analysis models by accounting for…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-02-22 Thilo Welz , Eric S. Knop , Tim Friede , Markus Pauly

Matching for causal inference is a well-studied problem, but standard methods fail when the units to match are text documents: the high-dimensional and rich nature of the data renders exact matching infeasible, causes propensity scores to…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-03-15 Reagan Mozer , Luke Miratrix , Aaron Russell Kaufman , L. Jason Anastasopoulos

It is common to conduct causal inference in matched observational studies by proceeding as though treatment assignments within matched sets are assigned uniformly at random and using this distribution as the basis for inference. This…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-11-14 Samuel D. Pimentel , Yaxuan Huang

Randomized A/B tests within online learning platforms represent an exciting direction in learning sciences. With minimal assumptions, they allow causal effect estimation without confounding bias and exact statistical inference even in small…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-06-13 Adam C. Sales , Ethan B. Prihar , Johann A. Gagnon-Bartsch , Neil T. Heffernan

Interventional effects have been proposed as a solution to the unidentifiability of natural (in)direct effects under mediator-outcome confounders affected by the exposure. Such confounders are an intrinsic characteristic of studies with…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-03-30 Iván Díaz , Nicholas Williams , Kara E. Rudolph

Mediation analysis aims to identify and estimate the effect of an exposure on an outcome that is mediated through one or more intermediate variables. In the presence of multiple intermediate variables, two pertinent methodological questions…

We consider assessing causal mediation in the presence of a post-treatment event (examples include noncompliance, a clinical event, or death). We identify natural mediation effects for the entire study population and for each principal…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-09-13 Chao Cheng , Fan Li

Causal mediation analyses investigate the mechanisms through which causes exert their effects, and are therefore central to scientific progress. The literature on the non-parametric definition and identification of mediational effects in…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-06-13 Richard Liu , Nicholas T. Williams , Kara E. Rudolph , Iván Díaz

Mediation analysis examines the pathways through which mediators transmit the effect of an exposure to an outcome. In high-dimensional settings, the joint significance test is commonly applied using variable screening followed by…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-08-26 Samuel Osarfo , Sangyoon Yi , Weijia Fu , Seungjun Ahn

In paired randomized experiments individuals in a given matched pair may differ on prognostically important covariates despite the best efforts of practitioners. We examine the use of regression adjustment as a way to correct for persistent…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2017-11-27 Colin B. Fogarty

Social and behavioral scientists are increasingly employing technologies such as fMRI, smartphones, and gene sequencing, which yield 'high-dimensional' datasets with more columns than rows. There is increasing interest, but little…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-10-11 Erik-Jan van Kesteren , Daniel L. Oberski