相关论文: Posterior risk of modular and semi-modular Bayesia…

The Bayesian approach to machine learning amounts to computing posterior distributions of random variables from a probabilistic model of how the variables are related (that is, a prior distribution) and a set of observations of variables.…

Inverse problems, i.e., estimating parameters of physical models from experimental data, are ubiquitous in science and engineering. The Bayesian formulation is the gold standard because it alleviates ill-posedness issues and quantifies…

Parameter inference is a fundamental problem in data-driven modeling. Given observed data that is believed to be a realization of some parameterized model, the aim is to find parameter values that are able to explain the observed data. In…

For linear models with a diverging number of parameters, it has recently been shown that modified versions of Bayesian information criterion (BIC) can identify the true model consistently. However, in many cases there is little…

Bayesian inference can quantify uncertainty in the predictions of neural networks using posterior distributions for model parameters and network output. By looking at these posterior distributions, one can separate the origin of uncertainty…

Identifying the parameters of a model and rating competitive models based on measured data has been among the most important but challenging topics in modern science and engineering, with great potential of application in structural system…

Computer models, aiming at simulating a complex real system, are often calibrated in the light of data to improve performance. Standard calibration methods assume that the optimal values of calibration parameters are invariant to the model…

Model-based Bayesian evidence combination leads to models with multiple parameteric modules. In this setting the effects of model misspecification in one of the modules may in some cases be ameliorated by cutting the flow of information…

Modern machine learning applications should be able to address the intrinsic challenges arising over inference on massive real-world datasets, including scalability and robustness to outliers. Despite the multiple benefits of Bayesian…

Simulator-based models are models for which the likelihood is intractable but simulation of synthetic data is possible. They are often used to describe complex real-world phenomena, and as such can often be misspecified in practice.…

We present an efficient, principled, and interpretable technique for inferring module assignments and for identifying the optimal number of modules in a given network. We show how several existing methods for finding modules can be…

Clustering is widely studied in statistics and machine learning, with applications in a variety of fields. As opposed to classical algorithms which return a single clustering solution, Bayesian nonparametric models provide a posterior over…

We propose a general method to carry out a valid Bayesian analysis of a finite-dimensional `targeted' parameter in the presence of a finite-dimensional nuisance parameter. We apply our methods to causal inference based on estimating…

In recent years, the shortcomings of Bayesian posteriors as inferential devices have received increased attention. A popular strategy for fixing them has been to instead target a Gibbs measure based on losses that connect a parameter of…

Bayesian optimization usually assumes that a Bayesian prior is given. However, the strong theoretical guarantees in Bayesian optimization are often regrettably compromised in practice because of unknown parameters in the prior. In this…

Many problems in science and engineering require making predictions based on few observations. To build a robust predictive model, these sparse data may need to be augmented with simulated data, especially when the design space is…

The goal of causal inference is to understand the outcome of alternative courses of action. However, all causal inference requires assumptions. Such assumptions can be more influential than in typical tasks for probabilistic modeling, and…

The Bayesian approach has proved to be a coherent approach to handle ill posed Inverse problems. However, the Bayesian calculations need either an optimization or an integral calculation. The maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation requires…

An efficient algorithm is proposed for Bayesian model calibration, which is commonly used to estimate the model parameters of non-linear, computationally expensive models using measurement data. The approach is based on Bayesian statistics:…

Due to their uncertainty quantification, Bayesian solutions to inverse problems are the framework of choice in applications that are risk averse. These benefits come at the cost of computations that are in general, intractable. New advances…