相关论文: Distributed Reproduction Numbers of Networked Epid…

This paper deals with the statistical signal pro- cessing over graphs for tracking infection diffusion in social networks. Infection (or Information) diffusion is modeled using the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) model. Mean field…

In this work, we review the figures used to characterize an epidemic outbreak most. Particular attention is drawn to epidemic spreading at time-varying transition rates. A time-varying SIR-like model is used to describe the epidemic…

In the study of infectious diseases on networks, researchers calculate epidemic thresholds to help forecast whether a disease will eventually infect a large fraction of a population. Because network structure typically changes in time,…

Contact patterns in populations fundamentally influence the spread of infectious diseases. Current mathematical methods for epidemiological forecasting on networks largely assume that contacts between individuals are fixed, at least for the…

The effective reproduction number is an important descriptor of an infectious disease epidemic. In small populations, ideally we would estimate the effective reproduction number using a Markov Jump Process (MJP) model of the spread of…

Discrete distributions derived from renewal processes, ie distributions of the number of events by some time t are beginning to be used in econometrics and health sciences. A new fast method is presented for computation of the probabilities…

Infectious diseases are studied to understand their spreading mechanisms, to evaluate control strategies and to predict the risk and course of future outbreaks. Because people only interact with a small number of individuals, and because…

The expected number of secondary infections arising from each index case, referred to as the reproduction or $R$ number, is a vital summary statistic for understanding and managing epidemic diseases. There are many methods for estimating…

Containment of epidemic outbreaks entails great societal and economic costs. Cost-effective containment strategies rely on efficiently identifying infected individuals, making the best possible use of the available testing resources.…

In this work, we aim to understand the influence of the heterogeneity of infection rates on the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) epidemic spreading. Employing the classic SIS model as the benchmark, we study the influence of the…

To simplify mathematical models of disease spread, we often assume equal contact rates among hosts, but real-world scenarios differ. Network-based frameworks help capture these complexities and structural variations in actual systems. We…

Networks of contacts capable of spreading infectious diseases are often observed to be highly heterogeneous, with the majority of individuals having fewer contacts than the mean, and a significant minority having relatively very many…

Infectious diseases typically spread over a contact network with millions of individuals, whose sheer size is a tremendous challenge to analysing and controlling an epidemic outbreak. For some contact networks, it is possible to group…

This study presents a method to discover an outbreak of an infectious disease in a region for which data are missing, but which is at work as a disease spreader. Node discovery for the spread of an infectious disease is defined as…

Infectious diseases are caused by pathogenic microorganisms and can spread through different ways. Mathematical models and computational simulation have been used extensively to investigate the transmission and spread of infectious…

The spread of an epidemic process is considered in the context of a spatial SIR stochastic model that includes a parameter $0\le p\le 1$ that assigns weights $p$ and $1- p$ to global and local infective contacts respectively. The model was…

We investigate final outcome properties of an SIR (susceptible $\to$ infective $\to$ recovered) epidemic model defined on a population of large sub-communities in which there is stronger disease transmission within the communities than…

In previous work, we developed the scaled SIS process, which models the dynamics of SIS epidemics over networks. With the scaled SIS process, we can consider networks that are finite-sized and of arbitrary topology (i.e., we are not…

Epidemic models are a valuable tool in the decision making process. Once a mathematical model for an epidemics has been established, the very next step is calculating a mathematical expression for the basic reproductive number, $R_0$, which…

In this paper we propose a deterministic mathematical model that attempts to explain the propagation of a rumor using SIRS type epidemiological models with temporary immunity and nonlinear incidence rate. In particular, we speculate about…