相关论文: Inference for Non-Stationary Heavy Tailed Time Ser…

We develop an estimator for the high-dimensional covariance matrix of a locally stationary process with a smoothly varying trend and use this statistic to derive consistent predictors in non-stationary time series. In contrast to the…

We study inference on the common stochastic trends in a non-stationary, $N$-variate time series $y_{t}$, in the possible presence of heavy tails. We propose a novel methodology which does not require any knowledge or estimation of the tail…

In this paper, we investigate time-varying nonlinear time series regression for a broad class of locally stationary time series. First, we propose sieve nonparametric estimators for the time-varying regression functions that achieve uniform…

This paper addresses the estimation of locally stationary long-range dependent processes, a methodology that allows the statistical analysis of time series data exhibiting both nonstationarity and strong dependency. A time-varying…

In this paper, we consider the time-inhomogeneous nonlinear time series regression for a general class of locally stationary time series. On one hand, we propose sieve nonparametric estimators for the time-varying regression functions which…

We introduce a new type of estimator for the spectral tail process of a regularly varying time series. The approach is based on a characterizing invariance property of the spectral tail process, which is incorporated into the new estimator…

In this paper, we study nonparametric models allowing for locally stationary regressors and a regression function that changes smoothly over time. These models are a natural extension of time series models with time-varying coefficients. We…

Methods of estimation and forecasting for stationary models are well known in classical time series analysis. However, stationarity is an idealization which, in practice, can at best hold as an approximation, but for many time series may be…

We propose a modified weighted Nadaraya-Watson estimator for the conditional distribution of a time series with heavy tails. We establish the asymptotic normality of the proposed estimator. Simulation study is carried out to assess the…

To draw inference on serial extremal dependence within heavy-tailed Markov chains, Drees, Segers and Warcho{\l} [Extremes (2015) 18, 369--402] proposed nonparametric estimators of the spectral tail process. The methodology can be extended…

Forecasting multivariate time series is a computationally intensive task challenged by extreme or redundant samples. Recent resampling methods aim to increase training efficiency by reweighting samples based on their running losses.…

Heavy tailed distributions present a tough setting for inference. They are also common in industrial applications, particularly with Internet transaction datasets, and machine learners often analyze such data without considering the biases…

In this paper we propose a framework that enables the study of large deviations for point processes based on stationary sequences with regularly varying tails. This framework allows us to keep track not of the magnitude of the extreme…

The accurate estimation of scaling exponents is central in the observational study of scale-invariant phenomena. Natural systems unavoidably provide observations over restricted intervals; consequently a stationary stochastic process (time…

The class of locally stationary processes assumes that there is a time-varying spectral representation, that is, the existence of finite second moment. We propose the $\alpha$-stable locally stationary process by modifying the innovations…

We propose the use of indirect inference estimation to conduct inference in complex locally stationary models. We develop a local indirect inference algorithm and establish the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimator. Due to the…

We propose a pointwise inference algorithm for high-dimensional linear models with time-varying coefficients. The method is based on a novel combination of the nonparametric kernel smoothing technique and a Lasso bias-corrected ridge…

This article proposes an online bootstrap scheme for nonparametric level estimation in nonstationary time series. Our approach applies to a broad class of level estimators expressible as weighted sample averages over time windows, including…

We study the fundamental task of outlier-robust mean estimation for heavy-tailed distributions in the presence of sparsity. Specifically, given a small number of corrupted samples from a high-dimensional heavy-tailed distribution whose mean…

For time series data observed at non-random and possibly non-equidistant time points, we estimate the trend function nonparametrically. Under the assumption of a bounded total variation of the function and low-order moment conditions on the…