相关论文: Changepoint Methods in Climatology
Urban areas are a high-stake target of climate change mitigation and adaptation measures. To understand, predict and improve the energy performance of cities, the scientific community develops numerical models that describe how they…
Trends in terrestrial temperature variability are perhaps more relevant for species viability than trends in mean temperature. In this paper, we develop methodology for estimating such trends using multi-resolution climate data from polar…
The current framework for climate change negotiation models presents several limitations that warrant further research and development. In this track, we discuss mainly two key areas for improvement, focusing on the geographical impacts and…
This article proposes a fundamental methodological shift in the modelling of policy interventions for sustainability transitions in order to account for complexity (e.g. self-reinforcing mechanism arising from multi-agent interactions) and…
A change points detection aims to catch an abrupt disorder in data distribution. Common approaches assume that there are only two fixed distributions for data: one before and another after a change point. Real-world data are richer than…
Climate science is critical for understanding both the causes and consequences of changes in global temperatures and has become imperative for decisive policy-making. However, climate science studies commonly require addressing complex…
We introduce a systematic classification method for the analogs of phase transitions in finite systems. This completely general analysis, which is applicable to any physical system and extends towards the thermodynamic limit, is based on…
The topic of Climate Change (CC) has received limited attention in NLP despite its urgency. Activists and policymakers need NLP tools to effectively process the vast and rapidly growing unstructured textual climate reports into structured…
Determining changes in global temperature and precipitation that may indicate climate change is complicated by annual variations. One approach for finding potential climate change indicators is to train a model that predicts the year from…
In this paper, we consider a change-point problem for a centered, stationary and $m$-dependent multivariate random field. Under the distribution free assumption, a change-point test using CUSUM statistic is proposed to detect anomalies…
We analyze several aspects of a class of simple counting processes, that can emerge in some fields of applications where the presence of a change-point occurs. Under simple conditions we, in particular, prove a significant inequality for…
Climate sensitivity is defined as the change in global mean equilibrium temperature after a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration and provides a simple measure of global warming. An early estimate of climate sensitivity, 1.5-4.5{\deg}C,…
The Pettitt test has been widely used in climate change and hydrological analyzes. However, studies evidence difficulties of this test in detecting change points, especially in small samples. This study presents a bootstrap application of…
This paper reviews recent developments in fundamental limits and optimal algorithms for change point analysis. We focus on minimax optimal rates in change point detection and localisation, in both parametric and nonparametric models. We…
We introduce the special issue on the Statistical Mechanics of Climate published on the Journal of Statistical Physics by presenting an informal discussion of some theoretical aspects of climate dynamics that make it a topic of great…
This article discusses the limits of the Anthropogenic Global Warming Theory advocated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. A phenomenological theory of climate change based on the physical properties of the data themselves is…
This is simply a long list of papers that I have found useful. They are generally related to aspects of the search for evidence that the Sun influences the climate somehow. There are papers on Data, on Methods and papers that just discuss…
Insects play such a crucial role in ecosystems that a shift in demography of just a few species can have devastating consequences at environmental, social and economic levels. Despite this, evaluation of insect demography is strongly…
The provision of accurate methods for predicting the climate response to anthropogenic and natural forcings is a key contemporary scientific challenge. Using a simplified and efficient open-source general circulation model of the atmosphere…
Here we define natural chaotic systems, like the earths weather and climate system, as chaotic systems which are open to the world so have constantly changing boundary conditions, and measurements of their states are subject to errors. In…