相关论文: Multifidelity conditional value-at-risk estimation…

Digital twin models allow us to continuously assess the possible risk of damage and failure of a complex system. Yet high-fidelity digital twin models can be computationally expensive, making quick-turnaround assessment challenging. Towards…

In this work, we tackle the problem of minimising the Conditional-Value-at-Risk (CVaR) of output quantities of complex differential models with random input data, using gradient-based approaches in combination with the Multi-Level Monte…

Value at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) have become the most popular measures of market risk in Financial and Insurance fields. However, the estimation of both risk measures is challenging, because it requires the knowledge…

In many sequential decision-making problems we may want to manage risk by minimizing some measure of variability in costs in addition to minimizing a standard criterion. Conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) is a relatively new risk measure that…

Hybrid methods for simulating rarefied gas flows reduce computational cost by coupling a particle-based model, typically the direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method, to a continuum-based solver, i.e. a computational fluid dynamics (CFD)…

Under the framework of dynamic conditional score, we propose a parametric forecasting model for Value-at-Risk based on the normal inverse Gaussian distribution (Hereinafter NIG-DCS-VaR), which creatively incorporates intraday information…

Multivariate Gaussian (MVG) distributions are central to modeling correlated continuous variables in probabilistic forecasting. Neural forecasting models typically parameterize the mean vector and covariance matrix of the distribution using…

Despite the success of Gaussian process based Model Predictive Control (MPC) in robotic control, its applicability scope is greatly hindered by multimodal disturbances that are prevalent in real-world settings. Here we propose a novel…

Multifidelity modeling has been steadily gaining attention as a tool to address the problem of exorbitant model evaluation costs that makes the estimation of failure probabilities a significant computational challenge for complex real-world…

Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) is a central tail-risk measure in stochastic structural mechanics, yet its accurate evaluation under high-dimensional, spatially correlated material uncertainty remains computationally prohibitive for…

Post-click conversion rate (CVR) prediction is an essential task for discovering user interests and increasing platform revenues in a range of industrial applications. One of the most challenging problems of this task is the existence of…

Current value-based multi-agent reinforcement learning methods optimize individual Q values to guide individuals' behaviours via centralized training with decentralized execution (CTDE). However, such expected, i.e., risk-neutral, Q value…

The conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) is a useful risk measure in fields such as machine learning, finance, insurance, energy, etc. When measuring very extreme risk, the commonly used CVaR estimation method of sample averaging does not work…

Broadcast/multicast communication systems are typically designed to optimize the outage rate criterion, which neglects the performance of the fraction of clients with the worst channel conditions. Targeting ultra-reliable communication…

Multi-fidelity Kriging model is a promising technique in surrogate-based design as it can balance the model accuracy and cost of sample preparation by fusing low- and high-fidelity data. However, the cost for building a multi-fidelity…

This paper compares the Value--at--Risk (VaR) forecasts delivered by alternative model specifications using the Model Confidence Set (MCS) procedure recently developed by Hansen et al. (2011). The direct VaR estimate provided by the…

We consider the problem of maximizing weighted sum rate in a multiple-input single-output (MISO) downlink wireless network with emphasis on user rate reliability. We introduce a novel risk-aggregated formulation of the complex WSR…

This article develops a new algorithm named TTRISK to solve high-dimensional risk-averse optimization problems governed by differential equations (ODEs and/or PDEs) under uncertainty. As an example, we focus on the so-called Conditional…

Conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) is a prominent risk measure in financial engineering, energy systems, and supply chain management. In these domains, Markov decision processes (MDPs) with a long-run CVaR criterion effectively mitigate cost…

Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) is a widely used risk-sensitive objective for learning under rare but high-impact losses, yet its statistical behavior under heavy-tailed data remains poorly understood. Unlike expectation-based risk, CVaR…