相关论文: Bayesian inference for aggregated Hawkes processes

Hawkes process is a class of simple point processes with self-exciting and clustering properties. Hawkes process has been widely applied in finance, neuroscience, social networks, criminology, seismology, and many other fields. In this…

Fueled in part by recent applications in neuroscience, the multivariate Hawkes process has become a popular tool for modeling the network of interactions among high-dimensional point process data. While evaluating the uncertainty of the…

We study the spatio-temporal prediction problem, which has attracted the attention of many researchers due to its critical real-life applications. In particular, we introduce a novel approach to this problem. Our approach is based on the…

Event-driven systems in fields such as neuroscience, social networks, and finance often exhibit dynamics influenced by continuously evolving external covariates. Motivated by these applications, we introduce a new class of multivariate…

Predicting discrete events in time and space has many scientific applications, such as predicting hazardous earthquakes and outbreaks of infectious diseases. History-dependent spatio-temporal Hawkes processes are often used to…

The Hawkes process is a simple point process that has long memory, clustering effect, self-exciting property and is in general non-Markovian. The future evolution of a self-exciting point process is influenced by the timing of the past…

Self-exciting spatiotemporal Hawkes processes have found increasing use in the study of large-scale public health threats ranging from gun violence and earthquakes to wildfires and viral contagion. Whereas many such applications feature…

The Hawkes process is a class of point processes whose future depends on their own history. Previous theoretical work on the Hawkes process is limited to a special case in which a past event can only increase the occurrence of future…

The rapid growth of social media has been witnessed during recent years as a result of the prevalence of the internet. This trend brings an increasing interest in simulating social media which can provide valuable insights to both academic…

We propose a fast and efficient estimation method that is able to accurately recover the parameters of a d-dimensional Hawkes point-process from a set of observations. We exploit a mean-field approximation that is valid when the…

Hawkes processes have recently gained increasing attention from the machine learning community for their versatility in modeling event sequence data. While they have a rich history going back decades, some of their properties, such as…

Event history data from sports competitions have recently drawn increasing attention in sports analytics to generate data-driven strategies. Such data often exhibit self-excitation in the event occurrence and dependence within event…

In this paper we propose an overview of the recent academic literature devoted to the applications of Hawkes processes in finance. Hawkes processes constitute a particular class of multivariate point processes that has become very popular…

The Hawkes process is a simple point process with wide applications in finance, social networks, criminology, seismology, and many other fields. The Hawkes process is defined for continuous-time setting. However, data is also recorded in a…

Given a collection of entities (or nodes) in a network and our intermittent observations of activities from each entity, an important problem is to learn the hidden edges depicting directional relationships among these entities. Here, we…

An extension of the Hawkes model where the productivity is variable is considered. In particular, the case is considered where each point may have its own productivity and a simple analytic formula is derived for the maximum likelihood…

Event data consisting of time of occurrence of the events arises in several real-world applications. Recent works have introduced neural network based point processes for modeling event-times, and were shown to provide state-of-the-art…

The Hawkes process is a simple point process, whose intensity function depends on the entire past history and is self-exciting and has the clustering property. The Hawkes process is in general non-Markovian. The linear Hawkes process has…

The Hawkes model is suitable for describing self and mutually exciting random events. In addition, the exponential decay in the Hawkes process allows us to calculate the moment properties in the model. However, due to the complexity of the…

We introduce a model-independent approximation for the branching ratio of Hawkes self-exciting point processes. Our estimator requires knowing only the mean and variance of the event count in a sufficiently large time window, statistics…