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Estimates of heterogeneous treatment effects such as conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) and conditional quantile treatment effects (CQTEs) play an important role in real-world decision making. Given this importance, one should…

Machine learning has shown much promise in helping improve the quality of medical, legal, and financial decision-making. In these applications, machine learning models must satisfy two important criteria: (i) they must be causal, since the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-10-12 Carolyn Kim , Osbert Bastani

Causal decision making (CDM) based on machine learning has become a routine part of business. Businesses algorithmically target offers, incentives, and recommendations to affect consumer behavior. Recently, we have seen an acceleration of…

机器学习 · 统计学 2021-10-01 Carlos Fernández-Loría , Foster Provost

Matching is one of the simplest approaches for estimating causal effects from observational data. Matching techniques compare the observed outcomes across pairs of individuals with similar covariate values but different treatment statuses…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2024-09-23 Abhishek Dalvi , Neil Ashtekar , Vasant Honavar

Estimating the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) from observational data is relevant for many applications such as personalized medicine. Here, we focus on the widespread setting where the observational data come from multiple…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-06-05 Jonas Schweisthal , Dennis Frauen , Mihaela van der Schaar , Stefan Feuerriegel

For counterfactual policy evaluation, it is important to ensure that treatment parameters are relevant to policies in question. This is especially challenging under unobserved heterogeneity, as is well featured in the definition of the…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2023-08-08 Sukjin Han , Shenshen Yang

The conditional average treatment effect (CATE) is a commonly targeted statistical parameter for measuring the effect of a treatment conditional on covariates. However, the CATE will fail to capture effects of treatments beyond differences…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-03 Jeffrey Näf , Junhyung Park , Herbert Susmann

Understanding causal mechanisms is crucial for explaining and generalizing empirical phenomena. Causal mediation analysis offers statistical techniques to quantify the mediation effects. Although numerous methods have been developed for…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-12 Jiawei Fu

The causal inference literature has increasingly recognized that explicitly targeting treatment effect heterogeneity can lead to improved scientific understanding and policy recommendations. Towards the same ends, studying the causal…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-03-06 Angela Ting , Antonio R. Linero

Meta-analysis, by synthesizing effect estimates from multiple studies conducted in diverse settings, stands at the top of the evidence hierarchy in clinical research. Yet, conventional approaches based on fixed- or random-effects models…

With an increasing focus on precision medicine in medical research, numerous studies have been conducted in recent years to clarify the relationship between treatment effects and patient characteristics. The treatment effects for patients…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-09-22 Ke Wan , Kensuke Tanioka , Toshio Shimokawa

Matching has become the mainstream in counterfactual inference, with which selection bias between sample groups can be significantly eliminated. However in practice, when estimating average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) via…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2022-06-14 Boyang You , Kerry Papps

Researchers are increasingly turning to machine learning (ML) algorithms to investigate causal heterogeneity in randomized experiments. Despite their promise, ML algorithms may fail to accurately ascertain heterogeneous treatment effects…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-04-23 Kosuke Imai , Michael Lingzhi Li

Long-term causal inference has drawn increasing attention in many scientific domains. Existing methods mainly focus on estimating average long-term causal effects by combining long-term observational data and short-term experimental data.…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-03-04 Weilin Chen , Ruichu Cai , Junjie Wan , Zeqin Yang , José Miguel Hernández-Lobato

We address the problem of estimating causal effects from observational data in the presence of network confounding, a setting where both treatment assignment and observed outcomes of individuals may be influenced by their neighbors within a…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-03-24 Abhishek Dalvi , Neil Ashtekar , Vasant Honavar

This paper provides a link between causal inference and machine learning techniques - specifically, Classification and Regression Trees (CART) - in observational studies where the receipt of the treatment is not randomized, but the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2019-05-23 Falco J. Bargagli-Stoffi , Giorgio Gnecco

We study variants of the average treatment effect on the treated with population parameters replaced by their sample counterparts. For each estimand, we derive the limiting distribution with respect to a semiparametric efficient estimator…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-02-12 Andrew Yiu

Conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) allow us to understand the effect heterogeneity across a large population of individuals. However, typical CATE learners assume all confounding variables are measured in order for the CATE to be…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-02-01 Yao Zhang , Jeroen Berrevoets , Mihaela van der Schaar

We propose a model averaging approach, combined with a partition and matching method to estimate the conditional average treatment effects under heteroskedastic error settings. The proposed approach has asymptotic optimality and consistency…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-12-17 Pengfei Shi , Xinyu Zhang , Wei Zhong

State-of-the-art methods for conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation make widespread use of representation learning. Here, the idea is to reduce the variance of the low-sample CATE estimation by a (potentially constrained)…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-03-13 Valentyn Melnychuk , Dennis Frauen , Stefan Feuerriegel