相关论文: Estimation of excess mortality in a chronic condit…

We use the illness-death model (IDM) for chronic conditions to derive a new analytical relation between the transition rates between the states of the IDM. The transition rates are the incidence rate (i) and the mortality rates of people…

Recently, it has been shown that the transition rates of the illness-death model (IDM) for chronic conditions are related to the percentages of people in the states by a three-dimensional system of differential equations [Bri24]. The aim of…

Recently, we have shown that the age-specific prevalence of a disease can be related to the transition rates in the illness-death model via a partial differential equation (PDE). In case of a chronic disease, we show that the PDE can be…

A widely-used model for determining the long-term health impacts of public health interventions, often called a "multistate lifetable", requires estimates of incidence, case fatality, and sometimes also remission rates, for multiple…

The illness-death model of a chronic disease consists of the states 'Normal', 'Disease' and 'Death'. In general, the transition rates between the states depend on three time scales: calendar time, age and duration of the chronic disease.…

Aggregated health data such as claims data from health insurances become more and more available for research purposes. Estimates of excess mortality from prevalence and incidence of a chronic condition have only been possible for ages 50…

Multi-state models provide an extension of the usual survival/event-history analysis setting. In the medical domain, multi-state models give the possibility of further investigating intermediate events such as relapse and remission. In this…

Recently, we have proposed a new illness-death model that comprises a state of undiagnosed chronic disease preceding the diagnosed disease. Based on this model, the question arises how case-finding can be assessed in the presence of…

Different ways of calculating mortality ratios during epidemics have yielded very different results, particularly during the current COVID-19 pandemic. We formulate both a survival probability model and an associated infection…

Diverse analysis approaches have been proposed to distinguish data missing due to death from nonresponse, and to summarize trajectories of longitudinal data truncated by death. We demonstrate how these analysis approaches arise from…

Hundreds of millions of people live in countries that do not have complete death registration systems, meaning that most deaths are not recorded and critical quantities like life expectancy cannot be directly measured. The sibling survival…

Widespread population aging has made it critical to understand death rates at old ages. However, studying mortality at old ages is challenging because the data are sparse: numbers of survivors and deaths get smaller and smaller with age. We…

This paper descibes a new method of calculating the mean duration and mean age of onset of a chronic disease from incidence and mortality rates. It is based on an ordinary differential equation resulting from a simple compartment model.…

Recently, we proposed an state model (compartment model) to describe the progression of a chronic disease with an pre-clinical (undiagnosed) state before clinical diagnosis. It is an open question, if a sequence of cross-sectional studies…

This paper descibes a new method for deriving incidence rates of a chronic disease from prevalence data. It is based on a new ordinary differential equation, which relates the change in the age-specific prevalence to the agespecific…

The stochastic system approach to causality is applied to situations where the risk of death is not negligible. This approach grounds causality on physical laws, distinguishes system and observation and represents the system by multivariate…

This book handles the fatty liver disease from the bio-statistical point of view . It discusses the disease process in the simple general form of health-disease-death multi-states model . Continuous Time Markov Chains are used to estimate…

\noindent The modal age at death is an increasingly used measure for understanding longevity and mortality patterns. However, existing estimation methods focus on point estimates, overlooking the inherent variability and uncertainty in…

Adult death rates are a critical indicator of population health and wellbeing. Wealthy countries have high-quality vital registration systems, but poor countries lack this infrastructure and must rely on estimates that are often…

Mortality is different across countries, states and regions. Several empirical research works however reveal that mortality trends exhibit a common pattern and show similar structures across populations. The key element in analyzing…