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Integration against a probability distribution given its unnormalized density is a central task in Bayesian inference and other fields. We introduce new methods for approximating such expectations with a small set of weighted samples --…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-05-15 Ayoub Belhadji , Daniel Sharp , Youssef M. Marzouk

In this article we consider Bayesian estimation of static parameters for a class of partially observed McKean-Vlasov diffusion processes with discrete-time observations over a fixed time interval. This problem features several obstacles to…

统计计算 · 统计学 2025-04-23 Ajay Jasra , Amin Wu

We propose a new minimum-distance estimator for linear random coefficient models. This estimator integrates the recently advanced sliced Wasserstein distance with the nearest neighbor methods, both of which enhance computational efficiency.…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-04-25 Keunwoo Lim , Ting Ye , Fang Han

A system of interacting Brownian particles subject to short-range repulsive potentials is considered. A continuum description in the form of a nonlinear diffusion equation is derived systematically in the dilute limit using the method of…

统计力学 · 物理学 2017-10-12 Maria Bruna , S. Jonathan Chapman , Martin Robinson

Determining the strength of non-linear statistical dependencies between two variables is a crucial matter in many research fields. The established measure for quantifying such relations is the mutual information. However, estimating mutual…

数据分析、统计与概率 · 物理学 2019-07-24 Damián G. Hernández , Inés Samengo

Diffusion models have shown promising potential for advancing Boltzmann Generators. However, two critical challenges persist: (1) inherent errors in samples due to model imperfections, and (2) the requirement of hundreds of functional…

We develop diffusion-based samplers for target distributions known up to a normalising constant. To this end, we rely on the well-known diffusion path that smoothly interpolates between a simple base distribution and the target, popularised…

We establish multi-scale convergence theory for a class of Hamilton-Jacobi PDEs in space of probability measures. They arise from context of hydrodynamic limit of N-particle deterministic action minimizing (global) Lagrangian dynamics. From…

偏微分方程分析 · 数学 2025-12-25 Jin Feng

Hypoelliptic diffusion processes can be used to model a variety of phenomena in applications ranging from molecular dynamics to audio signal analysis. We study parameter estimation for such processes in situations where we observe some…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2007-10-30 Y. Pokern , A. M. Stuart , P. Wiberg

This work addresses the estimation of rare-event quantities expressed as expectations of smooth observables of solutions to a broad class of McKean--Vlasov stochastic differential equations (MV-SDEs). Building on the double loop Monte Carlo…

Detecting weak, systematic distribution shifts and quantitatively modeling individual, heterogeneous responses to policies or incentives have found increasing empirical applications in social and economic sciences. Given two probability…

统计理论 · 数学 2024-03-29 YoonHaeng Hur , Tengyuan Liang

The aim of this paper is to study the asymptotic behavior of a system of birth and death processes in mean field type interaction in discrete space. We first establish the exponential convergence of the particle system to equilibrium for a…

概率论 · 数学 2015-10-13 Marie-Noémie Thai

We argue that Hamilton-Jacobi equations provide a convenient and intuitive approach for studying the large-scale behavior of mean-field disordered systems. This point of view is illustrated on the problem of inference of a rank-one matrix.…

概率论 · 数学 2018-11-13 Jean-Christophe Mourrat

Sampling the collective, dynamical fluctuations that lead to nonequilibrium pattern formation requires probing rare regions of trajectory space. Recent approaches to this problem based on importance sampling, cloning, and spectral…

统计力学 · 物理学 2022-02-14 Jiawei Yan , Hugo Touchette , Grant M. Rotskoff

The random batch method provides an efficient algorithm for computing statistical properties of a canonical ensemble of interacting particles. In this work, we study the error estimates of the fully discrete random batch method, especially…

概率论 · 数学 2022-09-01 Xuda Ye , Zhennan Zhou

This work concerns the optimal control problem for McKean-Vlasov SDEs. We provide explicit conditions to ensure the existence of optimal Markovian feedback controls. Moreover, based on the flow property of the McKean-Vlasov SDE, the dynamic…

概率论 · 数学 2023-10-18 Jinghai Shao

We introduce an extension of the non-equilibrium dynamical mean field theory to incorporate the effects of static random disorder in the dynamics of a many-particle system by integrating out different disorder configurations resulting in an…

强关联电子 · 物理学 2025-04-28 Chakradhar Rangi , Herbert F Fotso , Hanna Terletska , Juana Moreno , Ka-Ming Tam

Importance sampling Monte-Carlo methods are widely used for the approximation of expectations with respect to partially known probability measures. In this paper we study a deterministic version of such an estimator based on quasi-Monte…

统计计算 · 统计学 2024-12-20 Josef Dick , Daniel Rudolf , Houying Zhu

We address the problem of combined stochastic and impulse control for a market maker operating in a limit order book. The problem is formulated as a Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman quasi-variational inequality (HJBQVI). We propose an implicit…

数理金融 · 定量金融 2025-12-25 Alexey Meteykin

Solving Fredholm equations of the first kind is crucial in many areas of the applied sciences. In this work we adopt a probabilistic and variational point of view by considering a minimization problem in the space of probability measures…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2024-05-17 Francesca R. Crucinio , Valentin De Bortoli , Arnaud Doucet , Adam M. Johansen