相关论文: Efficient probabilistic reconciliation of forecast…

This paper focuses on forecasting hierarchical time-series data, where each higher-level observation equals the sum of its corresponding lower-level time series. In such contexts, the forecast values should be coherent, meaning that the…

In this paper, we propose a machine learning approach for forecasting hierarchical time series. When dealing with hierarchical time series, apart from generating accurate forecasts, one needs to select a suitable method for producing…

Some time series can be hierarchically organized into levels based on certain characteristics, such as geography or other attributes of interest. These series are referred to as hierarchical time series. Typically, forecasts are generated…

We introduce a dynamic approach to probabilistic forecast reconciliation at scale. Our model differs from the existing literature in this area in several important ways. Firstly we explicitly allow the weights allocated to the base…

In hierarchical forecasting, the process of forecast reconciliation transforms a set of "base" or "raw" forecasts, which do not satisfy the hierarchical aggregation constraints in the real data, into a set of "coherent" forecasts, which do…

We examine the problem of making reconciled forecasts of large collections of related time series through a behavioural/Bayesian lens. Our approach explicitly acknowledges and exploits the 'connectedness' of the series in terms of…

We encounter time series data in many domains such as finance, physics, business, and weather. One of the main tasks of time series analysis, one that helps to take informed decisions under uncertainty, is forecasting. Time series are often…

The practical importance of coherent forecasts in hierarchical forecasting has inspired many studies on forecast reconciliation. Under this approach, so-called base forecasts are produced for every series in the hierarchy and are…

Time series often appear in an additive hierarchical structure. In such cases, time series on higher levels are the sums of their subordinate time series. This hierarchical structure places a natural constraint on forecasts. However,…

Forecast reconciliation has become a prominent topic in recent forecasting literature, with a primary distinction made between cross-sectional and temporal hierarchies. This work focuses on temporal hierarchies, such as aggregating monthly…

A novel framework for hierarchical forecast updating is presented, addressing a critical gap in the forecasting literature. By assuming a temporal hierarchy structure, the innovative approach extends hierarchical forecast reconciliation to…

Model selection has been proven an effective strategy for improving accuracy in time series forecasting applications. However, when dealing with hierarchical time series, apart from selecting the most appropriate forecasting model,…

Forecast reconciliation is an important research topic. Yet, there is currently neither formal framework nor practical method for the probabilistic reconciliation of count time series. In this paper we propose a definition of coherency and…

In numerous applications, it is required to produce forecasts for multiple time-series at different hierarchy levels. An obvious example is given by the supply chain in which demand forecasting may be needed at a store, city, or country…

Hierarchical forecasting is a key problem in many practical multivariate forecasting applications - the goal is to simultaneously predict a large number of correlated time series that are arranged in a pre-specified aggregation hierarchy.…

Forecast reconciliation is a post-forecasting process that involves transforming a set of incoherent forecasts into coherent forecasts which satisfy a given set of linear constraints for a multivariate time series. In this paper we extend…

Reconciliation enforces coherence between hierarchical forecasts, in order to satisfy a set of linear constraints. While most works focus on the reconciliation of the point forecasts, we consider probabilistic reconciliation and we analyze…

We present a novel approach for reconciling hierarchical forecasts, based on Bayes rule. We define a prior distribution for the bottom time series of the hierarchy, based on the bottom base forecasts. Then we update their distribution via…

Aggregation constraints, arising from geographical or sectoral division, frequently emerge in a large set of time series. Coherent forecasts of these constrained series are anticipated to conform to their hierarchical structure organized by…

Forecast reconciliation has attracted significant research interest in recent years, with most studies taking the hierarchy of time series as given. We extend existing work that uses time series clustering to construct hierarchies, with the…