相关论文: Teleconnections among Tipping Elements in the Eart…
Recent work has highlighted the utility of methods for early warning signal detection in dynamic systems approaching critical tipping thresholds. Often these tipping points resemble local bifurcations, whose low dimensional dynamics can…
A wide variety of physical systems ranging from the firing of neurons to eutrophication of lakes to the presence of Arctic summer sea ice exhibit a phenomenon known as tipping. In mathematical models, tipping can be caused by bifurcations,…
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and polar ice sheets are coupled tipping elements, allowing for potential cascading tipping events in which tipping is facilitated by their mutual interactions. However, while an AMOC…
Systems that comprise many interacting dynamical networks, such as the human body with its biological networks or the global economic network consisting of regional clusters, often exhibit complicated collective dynamics. To understand the…
Mountain ecosystems are sensitive indicators of climate change. Long-term studies may be extremely useful in assessing the responses of high-elevation ecosystems to climate change and other anthropogenic drivers. Mountain research sites…
Interactions between different components of the Earth System (e.g. ocean, atmosphere, land and cryosphere) are a crucial driver of global weather patterns. Modern Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems typically run separate models of…
Multistability is a phenomenon prevalent in many natural systems. In climate, for example, it allows the possibility of irreversible consequences on planetary scale as a result of climate change. Indeed, a climate ``tipping element'' is a…
The measurement and mapping of transportation network vulnerability to natural hazards constitute subjects of global interest, especially due to climate change, and for a sustainable development agenda. During a flood, some elements of a…
The early detection of tipping points, which describe a rapid departure from a stable state, is an important theoretical and practical challenge. Tipping points are most commonly associated with the disappearance of steady-state or periodic…
We consider recent reports on small-world topologies of interaction networks derived from the dynamics of spatially extended systems that are investigated in diverse scientific fields such as neurosciences, geophysics, or meteorology. With…
Tipping points occur in many real-world systems, at which the system shifts suddenly from one state to another. The ability to predict the occurrence of tipping points from time series data remains an outstanding challenge and a major…
Changing climate conditions threaten the natural permafrost thaw-freeze cycle, leading to year-round soil temperatures above 0{\deg}C. In Alaska, the warming of the topmost permafrost layer, known as the active layer, signals elevated…
Teleconnections between the tropical and the extratropical climates are often considered as a potential source of long-term predictability at seasonal to decadal time scales in the extratropics. This claim is taken up in the present work by…
Anthropogenic warming impacts ecological communities and disturbs species interactions, particularly in temperature sensitive plant pollinator networks. While previous assessments indicate that rising mean temperatures and shifting temporal…
While most spatial data can be modeled with the assumption that distant points are uncorrelated, some problems require dependence at both far and short distances. We introduce a model to directly incorporate dependence in phenomena that…
Many systems of interacting elements can be conceptualized as networks, where network nodes represent the elements and network ties represent interactions between the elements. In systems where the underlying network evolves in time, it is…
Precise and reliable climate projections are required for climate adaptation and mitigation, but Earth system models still exhibit great uncertainties. Several approaches have been developed to reduce the spread of climate projections and…
Extreme precipitation events occurring over large spatial domains pose substantial threats to societies because they can trigger compound flooding, landslides, and infrastructure failures across wide areas. A hybrid framework for spatial…
Abrupt transitions are a central concern in climate and ecological research, and may arise when critical thresholds known as tipping points are crossed. However, previous work has shown that finite-time overshoots of tipping points can be…
The coupled Arctic system is in rapid transition and is set to undergo further dramatic changes over the coming decades. These changes will lead most likely to an ice-free ocean in summer, expected before mid-century. The Arctic will become…