相关论文: Bayes factors for longitudinal model assessment vi…

In this paper, we present a method for computing the marginal likelihood, also known as the model likelihood or Bayesian evidence, from Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), or other sampled posterior distributions. In order to do this, one…

Good large sample performance is typically a minimum requirement of any model selection criterion. This article focuses on the consistency property of the Bayes factor, a commonly used model comparison tool, which has experienced a recent…

The is no other model or hypothesis verification tool in Bayesian statistics that is as widely used as the Bayes factor. We focus on generative models that are likelihood-free and, therefore, render the computation of Bayes factors…

This article focuses on inference in logistic regression for high-dimensional binary outcomes. A popular approach induces dependence across the outcomes by including latent factors in the linear predictor. Bayesian approaches are useful for…

Bayesian phylogenetic methods are generating noticeable enthusiasm in the field of molecular systematics. Many phylogenetic models are often at stake and different approaches are used to compare them within a Bayesian framework. The Bayes…

We generalize the approach of Liu and Lawrence (1999) for multiple changepoint problems where the number of changepoints is unknown. The approach is based on dynamic programming recursion for efficient calculation of the marginal…

Computation of the marginal likelihood from a simulated posterior distribution is central to Bayesian model selection but is computationally difficult. I argue that the marginal likelihood can be reliably computed from a posterior sample by…

The application of Bayesian inference for the purpose of model selection is very popular nowadays. In this framework, models are compared through their marginal likelihoods, or their quotients, called Bayes factors. However, marginal…

In Bayesian accelerated life testing, the most used tool for model comparison is the deviance information criterion. An alternative and more formal approach is to use Bayes factors to compare models. However, Bayesian accelerated life…

A novel data-driven methodology is presented for the joint selection of prior parameters for both fixed and random effects in Linear Mixed Models (LMMs). This approach facilitates the estimation of complex random-effects structures, as well…

Estimating the model evidence - or mariginal likelihood of the data - is a notoriously difficult task for finite and infinite mixture models and we reexamine here different Monte Carlo techniques advocated in the recent literature, as well…

Bayesian models often involve a small set of hyperparameters determined by maximizing the marginal likelihood. Bayesian optimization is a popular iterative method where a Gaussian process posterior of the underlying function is sequentially…

Models for which the likelihood function can be evaluated only up to a parameter-dependent unknown normalising constant, such as Markov random field models, are used widely in computer science, statistical physics, spatial statistics, and…

In many domains, we are interested in analyzing the structure of the underlying distribution, e.g., whether one variable is a direct parent of the other. Bayesian model-selection attempts to find the MAP model and use its structure to…

In this paper we derive an explicit formula for calculating the marginal likelihood of a given factorization of a categorical dataset. Since the marginal likelihood is proportional to the posterior probability of the factorization, these…

In the simple vs composite hypothesis test with a proper prior, the Bayes Factor (BF) is shown to be the posterior mean of the Likelihood Ratio (LR). Therefore, the posterior standard deviation of the LR or rather its posterior cumulative…

The statistical evidence (or marginal likelihood) is a key quantity in Bayesian statistics, allowing one to assess the probability of the data given the model under investigation. This paper focuses on refining the power posterior approach…

Generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) are used for inference and prediction in a wide range of different applications providing a powerful scientific tool. An increasing number of sources of data are becoming available, introducing a…

In statistics, there are a variety of methods for performing model selection that all stem from slightly different paradigms of statistical inference. The reasons for choosing one particular method over another seem to be based entirely on…

Optimization is widely used in statistics, and often efficiently delivers point estimates on useful spaces involving structural constraints or combinatorial structure. To quantify uncertainty, Gibbs posterior exponentiates the negative loss…