相关论文: A multi-criterion simulation model to determine de…
In this paper we propose some mathematical models for the transmission of dengue using a system of reaction-diffusion equations. The mosquitoes are divided into infected, uninfected and aquatic subpopulations, while the humans, which are…
Reliable and timely dengue predictions provide actionable lead time for targeted vector control and clinical preparedness, reducing preventable diseases and health-system costs in at-risk communities. Dengue forecasting often relies on…
As the development of a dengue vaccine is ongoing, we simulate an hypothetical vaccine as an extra protection to the population. In a first phase, the vaccination process is studied as a new compartment in the model, and different ways of…
We propose an SEIR model for the populations and an SEI model for the vector to describe the transmission dynamics of a four-strain model with both primary and secondary dengue infections. In order to accomplish this, we propose and obtain…
Dengue is a viral vector-borne infectious disease that affects many countries worldwide, infecting around 390 million people per year. The main outbreaks occur in subtropical and tropical countries. We study here the influence of climate on…
The global population at risk of mosquito-borne diseases such as dengue, yellow fever, chikungunya and Zika is expanding. Infectious disease models commonly incorporate environmental measures like temperature and precipitation. Given…
Dengue is a vector-borne disease transmitted by the mosquito Aedes aegypti. It has been observed that its incidence is strongly influenced by temperature and other abiotic factors like rainfall and humidity. In this work we compare the…
Climate has been an important factor in shaping the distribution and incidence of dengue cases in tropical and subtropical countries. In Costa Rica, a tropical country with distinctive micro-climates, dengue has been endemic since its…
A two-patch mathematical model of Dengue virus type 2 (DENV-2) that accounts for vectors' vertical transmission and between patches human dispersal is introduced. Dispersal is modeled via a Lagrangian approach. A host-patch residence-times…
Background: Early forecasts of dengue are an important tool for disease mitigation. Neural networks are powerful predictive models that have made contributions to many areas of public health. In this study, we reviewed the application of…
With approximately half of the world's population at risk of contracting dengue, this mosquito-borne disease is of global concern. International travellers significantly contribute to dengue's rapid and large-scale spread by importing the…
In today's world,the risk of emerging and re-emerging epidemics have increased.The recent advancement in healthcare technology has made it possible to predict an epidemic outbreak in a region.Early prediction of an epidemic outbreak greatly…
Dengue fever is one of the most deadly mosquito-born tropical infectious diseases. Detailed long range forecast model is vital in controlling the spread of disease and making mitigation efforts. In this study, we examine methods used to…
Towards the end of an infectious disease outbreak, when a period has elapsed without new case notifications, a key question for public health policy makers is whether the outbreak can be declared over. This requires the benefits of a…
Local climate conditions play a major role in the development of the mosquito population responsible for transmitting Dengue Fever. Since the {\em Aedes Aegypti} mosquito is also a primary vector for the recent Zika and Chikungunya…
Dengue is a vector borne infectious disease. The disease is transmitted byAedes mosquitoes. In the present work, SEIR - SEI compartmental epidemiological model is used to describe dengue disease transmission dynamics. The human population…
The Bayesian analysis of infectious disease surveillance data from multiple locations typically involves building and fitting a spatio-temporal model of how the disease spreads in the structured population. Here we present new generally…
In retrospective assessments, internet news reports have been shown to capture early reports of unknown infectious disease transmission prior to official laboratory confirmation. In general, media interest and reporting peaks and wanes…
Population dynamics with spatial information is applied to understand the spread of pests. We introduce a model describing how pests spread in discrete space. The number of pest descendants at each site is controlled by local information…
Investigations of infectious disease outbreaks often focus on identifying place- and context-dependent factors responsible for emergence and spread, resulting in phenomenological narratives ill-suited to developing generalizable predictive…