相关论文: Spatial forecast postprocessing: The Max-and-Smoot…

Increasingly larger data sets of processes in space and time ask for statistical models and methods that can cope with such data. We show that the solution of a stochastic advection-diffusion partial differential equation provides a…

This article introduces novel and practicable Bayesian factor analysis frameworks that are computationally feasible for moderate to large spatiotemporal data. Previous Bayesian analysis of spatiotemporal data has utilized a Bayesian factor…

Accurate and reliable forecasting of total cloud cover (TCC) is vital for many areas such as astronomy, energy demand and production, or agriculture. Most meteorological centres issue ensemble forecasts of TCC, however, these forecasts are…

Machine learning-based weather forecasting models now surpass state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction systems, but training and operating these models at high spatial resolution remains computationally expensive. We present a modular…

To study trends in extreme precipitation across US over the years 1951-2017, we consider 10 climate indexes that represent extreme precipitation, such as annual maximum of daily precipitation, annual maximum of consecutive 5-day average…

To be able to produce accurate and reliable predictions of visibility has crucial importance in aviation meteorology, as well as in water- and road transportation. Nowadays, several meteorological services provide ensemble forecasts of…

For the prediction with experts' advice setting, we construct forecasting algorithms that suffer loss not much more than any expert in the pool. In contrast to the standard approach, we investigate the case of long-term forecasting of time…

We introduce a nonstationary spatio-temporal statistical model for gridded data on the sphere. The model specifies a computationally convenient covariance structure that depends on heterogeneous geography. Widely used statistical models on…

Statistical post-processing techniques are now widely used to correct systematic biases and errors in calibration of ensemble forecasts obtained from multiple runs of numerical weather prediction models. A standard approach is the ensemble…

We study Bayesian optimal control of a general class of smoothly parameterized Markov decision problems. Since computing the optimal control is computationally expensive, we design an algorithm that trades off performance for computational…

Platform businesses operate on a digital core and their decision making requires high-dimensional accurate forecast streams at different levels of cross-sectional (e.g., geographical regions) and temporal aggregation (e.g., minutes to…

In this paper, we propose a machine learning approach for forecasting hierarchical time series. When dealing with hierarchical time series, apart from generating accurate forecasts, one needs to select a suitable method for producing…

Machine learning-based seismic processing models are typically trained separately to perform specific seismic processing tasks (SPTs), and as a result, require plenty of training data. However, preparing training data sets is not trivial,…

With the rapid advances of data acquisition techniques, spatio-temporal data are becoming increasingly abundant in a diverse array of disciplines. Here we develop spatio-temporal regression methodology for analyzing large amounts of…

Sparse structure learning in high-dimensional Gaussian graphical models is an important problem in multivariate statistical signal processing; since the sparsity pattern naturally encodes the conditional independence relationship among…

Simple exponential smoothing is widely used in forecasting economic time series. This is because it is quick to compute and it generally delivers accurate forecasts. On the other hand, its multivariate version has received little attention…

Calibration requires predictor outputs to be consistent with their Bayesian posteriors. For machine learning predictors that do not distinguish between small perturbations, calibration errors are continuous in predictions, e.g., smooth…

Sample-based Bayesian inference provides a route to uncertainty quantification in the geosciences, and inverse problems in general, though is very computationally demanding in the naive form that requires simulating an accurate computer…

Smoothed analysis is a framework for analyzing the complexity of an algorithm, acting as a bridge between average and worst-case behaviour. For example, Quicksort and the Simplex algorithm are widely used in practical applications, despite…

This study aims to develop and improve machine learning-based post-processing models for precipitation, temperature, and wind speed predictions using the Mesoscale Model (MSM) dataset provided by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) for 18…