相关论文: Spatial forecast postprocessing: The Max-and-Smoot…

Spatial regression of random fields based on potentially biased sensing information is proposed in this paper. One major concern in such applications is that since it is not known a-priori what the accuracy of the collected data from each…

Gaussian processes are a powerful framework for quantifying uncertainty and for sequential decision-making but are limited by the requirement of solving linear systems. In general, this has a cubic cost in dataset size and is sensitive to…

Stochastic methods are a crucial area in contemporary climate research and are increasingly being used in comprehensive weather and climate prediction models as well as reduced order climate models. Stochastic methods are used as…

For a Bayesian, real-time forecasting with the posterior predictive distribution can be challenging for a variety of time series models. First, estimating the parameters of a time series model can be difficult with sample-based approaches…

Extreme environmental events frequently exhibit spatial and temporal dependence. These data are often modeled using max stable processes (MSPs). MSPs are computationally prohibitive to fit for as few as a dozen observations, with supposed…

Quantifying the impacts of anthropogenic global warming requires accurate Earth system model (ESM) simulations. Statistical bias correction and downscaling can be applied to reduce errors and increase the resolution of ESMs. However,…

Data assimilation is a core component of numerical weather prediction systems. The large quantity of data processed during assimilation requires the computation to be distributed across increasingly many compute nodes, yet existing…

We introduce a framework for updating large scale geospatial processes using a model-data synthesis method based on Bayesian hierarchical modelling. Two major challenges come from updating large-scale Gaussian process and modelling…

Ensemble forecasting systems have advanced meteorology by providing probabilistic estimates of future states. Nonetheless, systematic biases often persist, making statistical post-processing essential. Traditional parametric post-processing…

Accurate precipitation estimation is critical for flood forecasting, water resource management, and disaster preparedness. Satellite products provide global hourly coverage but contain systematic biases; ground-based gauges are accurate at…

The increased usage of solar energy places additional importance on forecasts of solar radiation. Solar panel power production is primarily driven by the amount of solar radiation and it is therefore important to have accurate forecasts of…

The post-processing approaches are becoming prominent techniques to enhance machine learning models' fairness because of their intuitiveness, low computational cost, and excellent scalability. However, most existing post-processing methods…

We tackle the problem of multiscale regression for predictors that are spatially or temporally indexed, or with a pre-specified multiscale structure, with a Bayesian modular approach. The regression function at the finest scale is expressed…

Supremum norm loss is intuitively more meaningful to quantify function estimation error in statistics. In the context of multivariate nonparametric regression with unknown error, we propose a Bayesian procedure based on spike-and-slab prior…

Cloud-related parameterizations remain a leading source of uncertainty in climate projections. Although machine learning holds promise for Earth system models (ESMs), many data-driven parameterizations lack interpretability, physical…

We present a framework to train a structured prediction model by performing smoothing on the inference algorithm it builds upon. Smoothing overcomes the non-smoothness inherent to the maximum margin structured prediction objective, and…

Quantifying spatial and/or temporal associations in multivariate geolocated data of different types is achievable via spatial random effects in a Bayesian hierarchical model, but severe computational bottlenecks arise when spatial…

An important task for any large-scale organization is to prepare forecasts of key performance metrics. Often these organizations are structured in a hierarchical manner and for operational reasons, projections of these metrics may have been…

Particle smoothing methods are used for inference of stochastic processes based on noisy observations. Typically, the estimation of the marginal posterior distribution given all observations is cumbersome and computational intensive. In…

We consider the accuracy of an approximate posterior distribution in nonparametric regression problems by combining posterior distributions computed on subsets of the data defined by the locations of the independent variables. We show that…