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Causality is important for designing interpretable and robust methods in artificial intelligence research. We propose a local approach to identify whether a variable is a cause of a given target under the framework of causal graphical…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-03-08 Zhuangyan Fang , Yue Liu , Zhi Geng , Shengyu Zhu , Yangbo He

The fields of time series and graphical models emerged and advanced separately. Previous work on the structure learning of continuous and real-valued time series utilizes the time domain, with a focus on either structural autoregressive…

统计计算 · 统计学 2023-04-18 Aramayis Dallakyan

Latent confounding has been a long-standing obstacle for causal reasoning from observational data. One popular approach is to model the data using acyclic directed mixed graphs (ADMGs), which describe ancestral relations between variables…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-03-23 Matthew Ashman , Chao Ma , Agrin Hilmkil , Joel Jennings , Cheng Zhang

We make the case for incorporating a notion of time into causal directed acyclic graphs (DAGs). We demonstrate that nontemporal causal DAGs are ambiguous and obstruct justification of the acyclicity assumption. Assuming that causes precede…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-22 Alexander G. Reisach , Alberto Suárez , Sebastian Weichwald , Antoine Chambaz

We consider recovering causal structure from multivariate observational data. We assume the data arise from a linear structural equation model (SEM) in which the idiosyncratic errors are allowed to be dependent in order to capture possible…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-11-11 Y. Samuel Wang , Mathias Drton

In complex multivariate systems, interactions among variables are defined by dependency structures, often encoded as directed acyclic graphs ($\text{DAGs}$). However, dependency structures can vary across subjects, and ignoring this…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-05-20 Honglin Du , Muxuan Liang , Xiang Zhong

Causal graphs, such as directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) and partial ancestral graphs (PAGs), represent causal relationships among variables in a model. Methods exist for learning DAGs and PAGs from data and for converting DAGs to PAGs.…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-01-19 Nishant Subramani

Causal relationships play a fundamental role in understanding the world around us. The ability to identify and understand cause-effect relationships is critical to making informed decisions, predicting outcomes, and developing effective…

We introduce graphical time series models for the analysis of dynamic relationships among variables in multivariate time series. The modelling approach is based on the notion of strong Granger causality and can be applied to time series…

统计理论 · 数学 2011-07-18 Michael Eichler

Causal discovery, i.e., inferring underlying causal relationships from observational data, is highly challenging for AI systems. In a time series modeling context, traditional causal discovery methods mainly consider constrained scenarios…

It is known that from purely observational data, a causal DAG is identifiable only up to its Markov equivalence class, and for many ground truth DAGs, the direction of a large portion of the edges will be remained unidentified. The golden…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2019-10-15 AmirEmad Ghassami , Saber Salehkaleybar , Negar Kiyavash

Statistical relationships in observed data can arise for several different reasons: the observed variables may be causally related, they may share a latent common cause, or there may be selection bias. Each of these scenarios can be…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-09-30 Ryan Carey , Marina Maciel Ansanelli , Elie Wolfe , Robin J. Evans

Identifying the causal structure of systems with multiple dynamic elements is critical to several scientific disciplines. The conventional approach is to conduct statistical tests of causality, for example with Granger Causality, between…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-03-22 Jacek P. Dmochowski

Given an extensive, semi-infinite collection of multivariate coevolving data sequences (e.g., sensor/web activity streams) whose observations influence each other, how can we discover the time-changing cause-and-effect relationships in…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-02-19 Naoki Chihara , Yasuko Matsubara , Ren Fujiwara , Yasushi Sakurai

Utilizing the complex inter-variable causal relationships within multivariate time-series provides a promising avenue toward more robust and reliable multivariate time-series anomaly detection (MTSAD) but remains an underexplored area of…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-06-05 HyunGi Kim , Jisoo Mok , Dongjun Lee , Jaihyun Lew , Sungjae Kim , Sungroh Yoon

Estimating the structure of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) from observational data remains a significant challenge in machine learning. Most research in this area concentrates on learning a single DAG for the entire population. This paper…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-02-21 Ryan Thompson , Edwin V. Bonilla , Robert Kohn

Interacting systems are prevalent in nature. It is challenging to accurately predict the dynamics of the system if its constituent components are analyzed independently. We develop a graph-based model that unveils the systemic interactions…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-10-31 Giangiacomo Mercatali , Andre Freitas , Jie Chen

Causal discovery from observational data is pivotal for deciphering complex relationships. Causal Structure Learning (CSL), which focuses on deriving causal Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) from data, faces challenges due to vast DAG spaces…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2023-11-21 Taiyu Ban , Lyuzhou Chen , Derui Lyu , Xiangyu Wang , Huanhuan Chen

Real causal processes may contain feedback loops and change over time. In this paper, we model cycles and non-stationary distributions using a mixture of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs). We then study the conditional independence (CI)…

统计理论 · 数学 2019-09-16 Eric V. Strobl

Time-varying causal models provide a powerful framework for studying dynamic scientific systems, yet most existing approaches assume that the underlying causal network is known a priori - an assumption rarely satisfied in real-world domains…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-05-28 Dmitry Zaytsev , Valentina Kuskova , Michael Coppedge