English

Building causation links in stochastic nonlinear systems from data

Statistical Mechanics 2025-09-10 v1 Machine Learning

Abstract

Causal relationships play a fundamental role in understanding the world around us. The ability to identify and understand cause-effect relationships is critical to making informed decisions, predicting outcomes, and developing effective strategies. However, deciphering causal relationships from observational data is a difficult task, as correlations alone may not provide definitive evidence of causality. In recent years, the field of machine learning (ML) has emerged as a powerful tool, offering new opportunities for uncovering hidden causal mechanisms and better understanding complex systems. In this work, we address the issue of detecting the intrinsic causal links of a large class of complex systems in the framework of the response theory in physics. We develop some theoretical ideas put forward by [1], and technically we use state-of-the-art ML techniques to build up models from data. We consider both linear stochastic and non-linear systems. Finally, we compute the asymptotic efficiency of the linear response based causal predictor in a case of large scale Markov process network of linear interactions.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2509.07701,
  title  = {Building causation links in stochastic nonlinear systems from data},
  author = {Sergio Chibbaro and Cyril Furtlehner and Théo Marchetta and Andrei-Tiberiu Pantea and Davide Rossetti},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2509.07701},
  year   = {2025}
}

Comments

24 pages, 11 Figures. Comments are welcome

R2 v1 2026-07-01T05:28:22.135Z