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Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) of Chipman et al. (2010) has proven to be a powerful tool for nonparametric modeling and prediction. Monotone BART (Chipman et al., 2022) is a recent development that allows BART to be more precise…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-09-03 Jared D. Fisher

In the era of precision medicine, genome-wide epigenetic modifications offer rich data that could inform risk prediction. However, these data are high-dimensional and exhibit complex dependence structures, which makes it difficult to…

应用统计 · 统计学 2026-05-25 Saurabh Bhandari , Parveen Bhatti , Brian C. -H. Chiu , Yuan Ji

The development of driverless vehicles has spurred the need to predict human driving behavior to facilitate interaction between driverless and human-driven vehicles. Predicting human driving movements can be challenging, and poor prediction…

应用统计 · 统计学 2025-09-16 Yaoyuan Vincent Tan , Carol A. C. Flannagan , Michael R. Elliott

We develop a semiparametric framework for inference on the mean response in missing-data settings using a corrected posterior distribution. Our approach is tailored to Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART), which is a powerful…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-10-21 Christoph Breunig , Ruixuan Liu , Zhengfei Yu

Although it is an extremely effective, easy-to-use, and increasingly popular tool for nonparametric regression, the Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) model is limited by the fact that it can only produce discontinuous output.…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-08-08 Ryan Yee , Soham Ghosh , Sameer K. Deshpande

Variable selection remains a fundamental challenge in statistics, especially in nonparametric settings where model complexity can obscure interpretability. Bayesian tree ensembles, particularly the popular Bayesian additive regression trees…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-09-10 Shengbin Ye , Meng Li

Individualized treatment rules (ITR) can improve health outcomes by recognizing that patients may respond differently to treatment and assigning therapy with the most desirable predicted outcome for each individual. Flexible and efficient…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2017-09-25 Brent R. Logan , Rodney Sparapani , Robert E. McCulloch , Purushottam W. Laud

Most clinical trials involve the comparison of a new treatment to a control arm (e.g., the standard of care) and the estimation of a treatment effect. External data, including historical clinical trial data and real-world observational…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-03-17 Tianjian Zhou , Yuan Ji

Feature engineering plays a critical role in handling hyperspectral data and is essential for identifying key wavelengths in food fraud detection. This study employs Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART), a flexible machine learning…

应用统计 · 统计学 2025-10-20 Mengxiang Zhu , Riccardo Rastelli

This article proposes Multinomial Probit Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (MPBART) as a multinomial probit extension of BART - Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (Chipman et al (2010)). MPBART is flexible to allow inclusion of predictors…

机器学习 · 统计学 2016-02-09 Bereket P. Kindo , Hao Wang , Edsel A. Peña

We present a novel prior for tree topology within Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) models. This approach quantifies the hypothetical loss in information and the loss due to complexity associated with choosing the wrong tree…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-12-30 F. Serafini , F. Leisen , C. Villa , K. Wilson

Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) is a popular Bayesian non-parametric regression algorithm. The posterior is a distribution over sums of decision trees, and predictions are made by averaging approximate samples from the posterior.…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-10-19 Omer Ronen , Theo Saarinen , Yan Shuo Tan , James Duncan , Bin Yu

Vector autoregression (VAR) models are widely used for forecasting and macroeconomic analysis, yet they remain limited by their reliance on a linear parameterization. Recent research has introduced nonparametric alternatives, such as…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-03-19 Pedro A. Lima , Carlos M. Carvalho , Hedibert F. Lopes , Andrew Herren

There is a dearth of robust methods to estimate the causal effects of multiple treatments when the outcome is binary. This paper uses two unique sets of simulations to propose and evaluate the use of Bayesian Additive Regression Trees…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-01-22 Liangyuan Hu , Chenyang Gu , Michael Lopez , Jiayi Ji , Juan Wisnivesky

This paper introduces BART-RDD, a sum-of-trees regression model built around a novel regression tree prior, which incorporates the special covariate structure of regression discontinuity designs. Specifically, the tree splitting process is…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-07-22 Rafael Alcantara , Meijia Wang , P. Richard Hahn , Hedibert Lopes

This paper develops a novel stochastic tree ensemble method for nonlinear regression, which we refer to as XBART, short for Accelerated Bayesian Additive Regression Trees. By combining regularization and stochastic search strategies from…

机器学习 · 统计学 2021-06-04 Jingyu He , P. Richard Hahn

This article proposes a novel framework that integrates Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) into a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) model to forecast macro-financial variables and examine asymmetries in the transmission…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-06-16 Sofia Velasco

Prediction is a classic challenge in spatial statistics and the inclusion of spatial covariates can greatly improve predictive performance when incorporated into a model with latent spatial effects. It is desirable to develop flexible…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-02-24 Alex Ziyu Jiang , Jon Wakefield

In light of widespread evidence of parameter instability in macroeconomic models, many time-varying parameter (TVP) models have been proposed. This paper proposes a nonparametric TVP-VAR model using Bayesian additive regression trees (BART)…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2023-05-08 Niko Hauzenberger , Florian Huber , Gary Koop , James Mitchell

Count-compositional data arise in many different fields, including high-throughput sequencing experiments, ecological surveys, and palaeoclimate studies, where a common, important goal is to understand how covariates relate to the observed…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-10 André F. B. Menezes , Andrew C. Parnell , Keefe Murphy