相关论文: Predictive Data Calibration for Linear Correlation…

Inverse weighting with an estimated propensity score is widely used by estimation methods in causal inference to adjust for confounding bias. However, directly inverting propensity score estimates can lead to instability, bias, and…

Conformal Prediction (CP) stands out as a robust framework for uncertainty quantification, which is crucial for ensuring the reliability of predictions. However, common CP methods heavily rely on data exchangeability, a condition often…

Machine learning methods are widely used by researchers to predict psychological characteristics from digital records. To find out whether automatic personality estimates retain the properties of the original traits, we reviewed 220 recent…

Replicability is a lynchpin for credible discoveries. The partial conjunction (PC) p-value, which combines individual base p-values from multiple similar studies, can gauge whether a feature of interest exhibits replicated signals across…

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in applications requiring factual accuracy, yet their outputs often contain hallucinated responses. While fact-checking can mitigate these errors, existing methods typically retrieve…

Negative controls are increasingly used to evaluate the presence of potential unmeasured confounding in observational studies. Beyond the use of negative controls to detect the presence of residual confounding, proximal causal inference…

In this paper, we focus on the problem of conformal prediction with conditional guarantees. Prior work has shown that it is impossible to construct nontrivial prediction sets with full conditional coverage guarantees. A wealth of research…

Uncertainty is critical to reliable decision-making with machine learning. Conformal prediction (CP) handles uncertainty by predicting a set on a test input, hoping the set to cover the true label with at least $(1-\alpha)$ confidence. This…

Objective: We compared six commonly used logistic regression methods for accommodating missing risk factor data from multiple heterogeneous cohorts, in which some cohorts do not collect some risk factors at all, and developed an online risk…

Methods for supervised principal component analysis (SPCA) aim to incorporate label information into principal component analysis (PCA), so that the extracted features are more useful for a prediction task of interest. Prior work on SPCA…

Inductive Conformal Prediction (ICP) is a set of distribution-free and model agnostic algorithms devised to predict with a user-defined confidence with coverage guarantee. Instead of having point predictions, i.e., a real number in the case…

In this work, we show that Spearman's correlation coefficient test about $H_0:\rho_s=0$ found in most statistical software packages is theoretically incorrect and performs poorly when bivariate normality assumptions are not met or the…

With model trustworthiness being crucial for sensitive real-world applications, practitioners are putting more and more focus on improving the uncertainty calibration of deep neural networks. Calibration errors are designed to quantify the…

Calibration tests based on the probability integral transform (PIT) are routinely used to assess the quality of univariate distributional forecasts. However, PIT-based calibration tests for multivariate distributional forecasts face various…

Accurately predicting the probabilities of user feedback, such as clicks and conversions, is critical for advertisement ranking and bidding. However, there often exist unwanted mismatches between predicted probabilities and true likelihoods…

It is common in machine learning to estimate a response $y$ given covariate information $x$. However, these predictions alone do not quantify any uncertainty associated with said predictions. One way to overcome this deficiency is with…

The vast availability of large scale, massive and big data has increased the computational cost of data analysis. One such case is the computational cost of the univariate filtering which typically involves fitting many univariate…

We analyze the prediction error of principal component regression (PCR) and prove high probability bounds for the corresponding squared risk conditional on the design. Our first main result shows that PCR performs comparably to the oracle…

Reinforcement learning (RL) methods have demonstrated their efficiency in simulation environments. However, many applications for which RL offers great potential, such as autonomous driving, are also safety critical and require a certified…

Principal component analysis (PCA) is a well-established tool in machine learning and data processing. The principal axes in PCA were shown to be equivalent to the maximum marginal likelihood estimator of the factor loading matrix in a…