相关论文: Long-term temporal evolution of extreme temperatur…
The generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is commonly employed to help estimate the likelihood of extreme events in many geophysical and other application areas. The recently proposed blended generalized extreme value (bGEV)…
How is climate change altering the global patterns, frequency, and intensity of drought? To investigate this, we analyzed global drought events from 2000-2020 using a composite of hydrological indices ($\Sigma$(ET-P), SSMI, and GRACE-DSI).…
The relationship between global warming and extreme rainfalls in Taiwan was examined in this study. Taiwan rainfall data from TCCIP, a project led by MOST, were analyzed. North Hemisphere reference temperature data from NCEI led by NOAA.…
Recent developments in extreme value statistics have established the so-called geometric approach as a powerful modelling tool for multivariate extremes. We tailor these methods to the case of spatial modelling and examine their efficacy at…
The focus of our work is improving the interpretability of anomalies in climate models and advancing our understanding of Arctic melt dynamics. The Arctic and Antarctic ice sheets are experiencing rapid surface melting and increased…
Weather extremes pose major societal risks, especially in a changing climate, but due to their rarity, they are difficult to study using limited observations or complex climate models. We introduce AI+RES, a framework coupling fast AI…
The importance of modelling temperature fields goes beyond the need to understand a region's climate and serves too as a starting point for understanding their socioeconomic, and health consequences. The topography of the study region…
Recent extreme value theory literature has seen significant emphasis on the modelling of spatial extremes, with comparatively little consideration of spatio-temporal extensions. This neglects an important feature of extreme events: their…
The gaussian spread regression model for the calibration of site specific ensemble temperature forecasts depends on the apparently restrictive assumption that the uncertainty around temperature forecasts is normally distributed. We…
Daily rainfall extremes and annual totals have increased in large parts of the global land area over the last decades. These observations are consistent with theoretical considerations of a warming climate. However, until recently these…
The downward trend in the amount of Arctic sea ice has a wide range of environmental and economic consequences including important effects on the pace and intensity of global climate change. Based on several decades of satellite data, we…
Precise and reliable climate projections are required for climate adaptation and mitigation, but Earth system models still exhibit great uncertainties. Several approaches have been developed to reduce the spread of climate projections and…
Extreme value analysis is an essential methodology in the study of rare and extreme events, which hold significant interest in various fields, particularly in the context of environmental sciences. Models that employ the exceedances of…
An impact of climate change is the increase in frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events. However, confidently predicting the likelihood of extreme precipitation at seasonal scales remains an outstanding challenge. Here, we…
We develop two models for the temporal evolution of extreme events of multivariate $k$th order Markov processes. The foundation of our methodology lies in the conditional extremes model of Heffernan & Tawn (2004), and it naturally extends…
In the era of climate change, the distribution of climate variables evolves with changes not limited to the mean value. Consequently, clustering algorithms based on central tendency could produce misleading results when used to summarize…
We consider the effect of different temporal error structures on the inference of equilibrium climate sensitivity\footnote{ECS is defined as the realized equilibrium surface warming---globally-averaged surface air temperature---for a…
Extreme weather events, rare yet profoundly impactful, are often accompanied by severe conditions. Increasing global temperatures are poised to exacerbate these events, resulting in greater human casualties, economic losses, and ecological…
Climate change affects occurrences of floods and droughts worldwide. However, predicting climate impacts over individual watersheds is difficult, primarily because accurate hydrological forecasts require models that are calibrated to past…
The heavy-tailed behavior of the generalized extreme-value distribution makes it a popular choice for modeling extreme events such as floods, droughts, heatwaves, wildfires, etc. However, estimating the distribution's parameters using…