相关论文: Optimal Prior Pooling from Expert Opinions

We present an opinion model founded upon the principles of the bounded confidence interaction among agents. Our objective is to explain the polarization effects inherent to vector-valued opinions. The evolutionary process adheres to the…

We propose the multidimensional social compass model, based on two competing key ingredients: DeGroot learning, driven by the social influence exerted across multiple topics, and the preference of individuals to maintain their initial…

The bulk of the literature on opinion optimization in social networks adopts the Friedkin-Johnsen (FJ) opinion dynamics model, in which the innate opinions of all nodes are known: this is an unrealistic assumption. In this paper, we study…

The dynamical origin of opinion polarization in the real world is an interesting topic physical scientists may help to understand. To properly model the dynamics, the theory must be fully compatible with findings by social psychologists on…

In high-dimensional problems, choosing a prior distribution such that the corresponding posterior has desirable practical and theoretical properties can be challenging. This begs the question: can the data be used to help choose a good…

The paper treats opinion dynamics of an unequal distribution as the initial opinion distribution. Simulated is the Deffuant model on a directed Barabasi-Albert network with discrete opinions and several subjects. Noticed is a focusing of…

We consider a population of Bayesian agents who share a common prior over some finite state space and each agent is exposed to some information about the state. We ask which distributions over empirical distributions of posteriors beliefs…

We discuss optimal prediction for families of probability distributions with a locally compact topological group structure. Right-invariant priors were previously shown to yield a posterior predictive distribution minimizing the worst-case…

We advocate for a new statistical principle that combines the most desirable aspects of both parameter inference and density estimation. This leads us to the predictively oriented (PrO) posterior, which expresses uncertainty as a…

We employ optimal control theory to study the problem of estimating the probability density function from a data set originating from an unknown probability distribution. The original variational problem is reformulated as a multi-stage…

Pooling is an essential component of a wide variety of sentence representation and embedding models. This paper explores generalized pooling methods to enhance sentence embedding. We propose vector-based multi-head attention that includes…

In decision modelling with time to event data, there are a variety of parametric models which could be used to extrapolate the survivor function. Each of these implies a different hazard function and in situations where there is moderate…

For each of $T$ time steps, $m$ experts report probability distributions over $n$ outcomes; we wish to learn to aggregate these forecasts in a way that attains a no-regret guarantee. We focus on the fundamental and practical aggregation…

Recently, topic modeling has been widely used to discover the abstract topics in text corpora. Most of the existing topic models are based on the assumption of three-layer hierarchical Bayesian structure, i.e. each document is modeled as a…

Axelrod model is an opinion dynamics model such that each agent on a square lattice has a finite number of possible nominal opinions on a finite number of issues that are usually called features in the field. Moreover, its dynamics between…

In Bayesian statistics, the choice of prior distribution is often debatable, especially if prior knowledge is limited or data are scarce. In imprecise probability, sets of priors are used to accurately model and reflect prior knowledge.…

In a given problem, the Bayesian statistical paradigm requires the specification of a prior distribution that quantifies relevant information about the unknowns of main interest external to the data. In cases where little such information…

The ongoing unprecedented exponential explosion of available computing power, has radically transformed the methods of statistical inference. What used to be a small minority of statisticians advocating for the use of priors and a strict…

The optimal phase estimation strategy is derived when partial a priori knowledge on the estimated phase is available. The structure of the optimal measurements, estimators and the optimal probe states is analyzed. The results fill the gap…

Scientific experiments are usually expensive due to complex experimental preparation and processing. Experimental design is therefore involved with the task of finding the optimal experimental input that results in the desirable output by…